Amcor Outlook - Weak Technicals and Mixed Fundamentals Signal Cautious Approach

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Amcor (AMCR) is currently in a weak technical state with a downward price trend of -0.84%, and analysts show a relatively neutral stance despite the recent bearish momentum. Our internal diagnostic score for technicals is 1.42 out of 10, suggesting investors should avoid the stock in the short term.

News Highlights

• EPE USA Sustainability Efforts: Recent news highlights EPE USA's commitment to sustainable packaging, which may indirectly affect Amcor's market positioning in eco-friendly packaging solutions.
• Ohio Pension Fund Divests: The Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio cut its stake in Packaging Co. of America by 8.4%. While not directly about Amcor, it signals a cautious approach to the broader packaging sector.
• Ukrainian Conflict and North Korea: A UN monitoring group reported North Korea's support of Russia with 20,000 containers of ammunition. While unrelated to Amcor, global tensions could impact supply chains and materials sourcing in the long run.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Amcor has received only one analyst rating in the last 20 days from Baird's Ghansham Panjabi, which was Neutral. The analyst has a strong historical win rate of 100%, but an average historical return of -4.35% when making similar calls.

• Average Rating Score (Simple Mean): 3.00
• Weighted Rating Score (Performance-Weighted): 2.08
• Rating Consistency: Analyst ratings are dispersed, with no strong consensus. The current price trend is falling, and the weighted average expectations align with this, indicating a neutral to bearish outlook.

Key Fundamental Values and Scores

• Total operating revenue (YoY growth rate): -1.49% (internal diagnostic score: 2)
• Net cash flow from operating activities (YoY growth rate): -30.26% (score: 3)
• Net income-Revenue: -0.64% (score: 1)
• Equity ratio (Total liabilities / Shareholders' equity): 3.27% (score: 2)
• Operating cycle: 119.89 days (score: 2)
• PE ratio: 89.47x (score: 0)

The fundamental outlook is mixed. While Amcor’s operating revenue is declining, its cash flow and equity metrics show moderate strength, but not enough to offset the weak earnings and high valuation.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money and retail flows are both bearish, with an overall fund-flow score of 7.73 (on a 0-10 scale where 10 is best). This high score indicates strong institutional selling pressure across all categories, from extra-large to small investors. The overall inflow ratio is 49.11%, meaning that nearly half of the capital is still flowing out of the stock.

Key Technical Signals

Amcor’s technical outlook is weak, with four bearish indicators and no bullish ones in the last 5 days. Our internal technical score is 1.42 out of 10, and the overall trend suggests investors should avoid the stock.

Recent Chart Patterns and Indicators

• Marubozu White: A bearish candlestick pattern indicating strong selling pressure (internal diagnostic score: 1).
• MACD Golden Cross: Typically a bullish sign, but here it’s flagged as bearish with a score of 1.
• WR Overbought: Suggests potential price correction after an overbought condition (score: 1).
• WR Oversold (repeated): Indicated weak buying interest with a score of 2.67, but it has not led to a rebound.

Recent Signal Dates

• 2025-09-10: WR Oversold
• 2025-09-11: MACD Golden Cross, Marubozu White
• 2025-09-16: WR Overbought

The recent signal cluster suggests a deteriorating momentum pattern, with bearish dominance increasing over the last week.

Conclusion

Amcor’s technical and market flow signals indicate a weak short-term outlook. Analysts are neutral, but the bearish momentum in technicals and money flows is strong. Investors should avoid short-term entries and consider waiting for a clearer reversal signal or improved earnings guidance to build confidence. With a technical score of 1.42 out of 10, now may not be the time to chase AMCR on a rally.