Amcor and Berry Secure EU Approval: A Strategic Leap for Packaging Giants

The European Commission’s unconditional approval of the proposed merger between Amcor (NYSE: AMCR) and Berry Global (NYSE: BERY) marks a pivotal moment for the global packaging industry. The deal, valued at over $13.6 billion in combined annual sales, is now poised to close by April 30, 2025, pending final regulatory clearances and financing. The merger brings together two industry leaders, with Amcor’s expertise in sustainable packaging and Berry’s strength in innovative materials, creating a global powerhouse employing 75,000 workers across 400+ locations.

Regulatory Clearance: A Critical Hurdle Cleared

The EC’s decision, announced April 25, 2025, resolves one of the last major regulatory barriers. Unlike earlier merger reviews in the U.S. and Australia—which required asset divestitures—the EU concluded the combination would not significantly harm competition. This contrasts with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission’s mandate for Berry to divest North American rigid plastics assets and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s requirement for Amcor to offload its flexible packaging division. The EC’s stance reflects its assessment that overlapping markets are limited, though it emphasized ongoing monitoring to ensure compliance with antitrust laws.

Strategic Synergies and Market Dominance

The merged entity will command a broader portfolio, spanning sustainable flexible packaging, medical plastics, and circular economy solutions. Amcor’s focus on eco-friendly materials aligns with Berry’s advanced manufacturing capabilities, potentially driving cost savings of $300 million annually by 2027. Analysts project the combined firm could achieve a 15–20% global market share in key segments, leveraging Amcor’s 30% stake in the European flexible packaging market and Berry’s 25% share in U.S. rigid plastics.

Amcor’s shares have risen 18% year-to-date, while Berry’s stock is up 12%, reflecting investor optimism about the merger’s synergies. However, both companies face near-term risks, including the need to finalize $1.2 billion in debt financing and secure shareholder approvals.

Remaining Risks and Closing Conditions

While the EC’s approval is a milestone, the deal hinges on three key factors:
1. Financing: The merged company must secure $1.2 billion in committed loans to fund the transaction, a step still pending as of April 2025.
2. Shareholder Approvals: Both companies’ shareholders must vote in favor, though board endorsements suggest strong support.
3. Regional Regulatory Finalities: Australia’s ACCC and U.S. authorities have yet to fully sign off, with Amcor’s proposed divestment of its Australian flexible packaging division to SKC still under review.

Financial Implications and Long-Term Outlook

The merger’s success hinges on operational integration and the realization of synergies. The combined firm’s 2024 fiscal revenue of $13.6 billion (Amcor) + $8.9 billion (Berry) positions it to challenge global rivals like Ball Corporation and WestRock. However, challenges loom:
- Market Volatility: Fluctuations in oil prices, a key input for plastics, could pressure margins.
- Divestment Delays: If divestitures are not completed by June 2025, the EC could impose fines of up to 5% of daily turnover.

Conclusion: A Transformative Deal with Balanced Risks

The Amcor-Berry merger represents a strategic consolidation that could redefine the packaging industry. With the EC’s approval now secured, the focus shifts to closing remaining conditions and executing on synergies. The $22.5 billion combined enterprise (revenue) stands to gain significant scale and innovation capacity, particularly in sustainable packaging—a sector projected to grow at 6% annually through 2030.

However, investors must weigh these opportunities against execution risks. If the merger closes on schedule and divestitures proceed smoothly, the combined entity could deliver 10–15% annualized returns through cost savings and market share gains. Conversely, delays or regulatory pushbacks could trigger a 20%+ drop in shares, akin to past merger failures in the sector.

For now, the green light from Brussels signals a step toward consolidation in an industry ripe for transformation—a move investors will monitor closely as the deadline approaches.