AMCI Plummets 30% on Nasdaq Debut Amid Volatile SPAC Merger Aftermath

Summary
• AMC Robotics (AMCI) plunges 29.8% to $7.23, trading below its 52-week low of $5.43
• Intraday range of $6.726–$8.94 highlights extreme volatility post-SPAC merger
• $10.30 IPO price now 30% below current level as market digests overvalued fair value analysis
• Turnover of 123,726 shares at 8.57% turnover rate signals aggressive short-term positioning

AMC Robotics’ Nasdaq debut has turned into a rollercoaster, with the stock collapsing 29.8% intraday after completing its SPAC merger with AlphaVest. The sharp selloff follows a $10.30 IPO price that now appears disconnected from fundamentals, as the company’s $25.27M market cap SPAC vehicle is deemed overvalued. With a 52-week range of $5.43–$42 and a dynamic PE of -6.67, the stock’s trajectory reflects market skepticism toward its AI-powered robotics commercialization plans.

SPAC Merger Volatility and Overvaluation Spark Selloff
AMCI’s 29.8% intraday plunge stems from a confluence of SPAC merger dynamics and valuation skepticism. The $10.30 IPO price, set during a $5.43–$42 price range, now trades at 30% below its debut level as investors reassess the merged entity’s fundamentals. AlphaVest’s $25.27M market cap and 'overvalued' fair value rating from InvestingPro have amplified downward pressure. The $8M private placement at $10/share, while providing liquidity, contrasts sharply with AMCI’s current $7.23 price, signaling a disconnect between capital-raising terms and market sentiment. Additionally, the stock’s 8.57% turnover rate suggests aggressive short-term positioning, with traders capitalizing on the SPAC merger’s inherent volatility.

Machinery Sector Steadies as AMCI Dives
Technical Divergence and ETF Positioning in Focus
• 200-day average: 9.87 (below) • RSI: 46.88 (neutral) • MACD: -0.027 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: 9.67–10.41 (oversold)

AMCI’s technical profile reveals a short-term bearish trend amid long-term bullish divergence. The stock trades below its 30-day (10.03), 100-day (9.90), and 200-day (9.87) averages, while RSI at 46.88 suggests neutral momentum. MACD (-0.027) and negative histogram (-0.0315) confirm bearish momentum, but Bollinger Bands (lower bound at $9.67) hint at potential oversold conditions. With no options liquidity available, traders should focus on key support/resistance levels: 10.04 (middle band), 9.87 (200D MA), and 9.67 (lower band). The 52-week low of $5.43 remains a critical floor to watch. Given the sector leader Caterpillar’s 0.87% gain, a cautious long-term position in AMCI may be justified if it stabilizes above $9.67.

Backtest AMC Robotics Stock Performance
The backtest of AMC's performance after a -30% intraday plunge from 2022 to now reveals a mixed outlook. While the stock experienced a maximum return of -0.07% over a 30-day period, the overall trend was negative, with returns of -1.06% over 3 days, -1.95% over 10 days, and -3.36% over 30 days. The win rates also declined with increasing time frames, indicating a higher probability of losses following the intraday plunge.

Short-Term Turbulence, Long-Term Robotics Potential
AMCI’s 29.8% intraday selloff reflects SPAC merger volatility and valuation skepticism, but technical indicators suggest a potential oversold rebound. Traders should monitor the $9.67 Bollinger Band support and 200-day average at $9.87 as critical levels. While the stock remains 30% below its IPO price, the long-term bullish K-line pattern and AI robotics commercialization plans warrant cautious optimism. With Caterpillar (CAT) leading the Machinery sector higher, AMCI’s ability to stabilize above $9.67 will determine whether this selloff is a buying opportunity or a deeper correction. Investors should prioritize risk management, using stop-loss orders below $9.67 to protect against further downside.