AMC Soars 10.5% on Surge in Options Activity and Analyst Optimism – What's Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• AMC shares surge 10.57% intraday, hitting $3.54 as options volume spikes to 173,234 contracts
• $4 strike call options for August 8 expiration dominate activity, trading 41,479 contracts
• Barrington analyst reiterates Hold rating with $3.15 price target, while Wall Street sees no end to AMC’s rally
• Technicals show RSI at 57.25, MACD crossing into positive territory, and Bollinger Bands tightening ahead of a breakout
AMC Entertainment Holdings is experiencing one of its most volatile trading sessions in months, with surging call options activity and a sharp rebound in price. The stock’s 10.57% intraday gain has outperformed its 52-week low of $2.45, while technical indicators and sector dynamics suggest a pivotal moment for the entertainment giant. With options volume hitting 150% of its 30-day average, investors are betting on a potential breakout or reversal.

Options Volatility and Analyst Optimism Drive AMC's Rally
AMC’s sharp intraday rally is being fueled by a confluence of options-driven speculation and analyst commentary. The $4 strike call option for August 8 expiration has drawn 41,479 contracts, representing 4.1 million shares, as traders anticipate a potential rebound in box office-driven revenue. This aligns with a Wall Street analyst’s bullish outlook, which cites a box-office rebound as a catalyst for sustained gains. Meanwhile, Barrington’s Hold rating with a $3.15 price target, while conservative, has not deterred traders from loading up on near-term calls. The stock’s price action—climbing from $3.1883 to $3.54—suggests a short-term reversal is underway, supported by a narrowing Bollinger Band range and a MACD histogram turning positive.

Entertainment Sector Gains Momentum as WBD Surges 3.26%
The broader entertainment sector is showing signs of strength, with Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) rising 3.26% amid speculation about streaming content monetization. AMC’s 10.57% gain, however, outpaces the sector, indicating that the rally is driven by specific catalysts rather than broad industry optimism. While WBD’s performance reflects confidence in content-driven revenue models, AMC’s surge is more directly tied to options speculation and analyst commentary on box-office recovery. This divergence highlights AMC’s unique positioning as a speculative name within the sector.

High-Leverage Call Options and ETFs for a Bullish AMC Breakout
• MACD: 0.0125 (bullish crossover), RSI: 57.25 (neutral), 200D MA: $3.54 (current price at 52-week high)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $3.29, Middle $3.02, Lower $2.76 (price near upper band)
• Key Levels: $3.54 (intraday high), $3.18 (support), $3.54 (200D MA resistance)
• Options Chain Liquidity: $4 strike calls for August 8 (AMC20250808C3.5) and August 15 (AMC20250815C3.5) show strong turnover and implied volatility
• Leveraged ETF: Not available for AMC; sector ETFs like XLV are not directly applicable
Top Options Picks:
1. AMC20250808C3.5 (Call, $3.5 strike, Aug 8):
• IV: 99.31% (high volatility)
• Delta: 0.56 (moderate sensitivity to price)
• Theta: -0.0106 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.449 (high sensitivity to price movement)
• Turnover: $45,580 (liquid)
• Leverage Ratio: 9.76% (high gearing)
• Payoff at 5% upside (3.69): $0.19 per share. This contract offers a high-gamma, high-IV play for a short-term breakout, leveraging AMC’s tight Bollinger Bands and MACD crossover.
2. AMC20250815C3.5 (Call, $3.5 strike, Aug 15):
• IV: 94.17% (moderate volatility)
• Delta: 0.565 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0086 (lower time decay)
• Gamma: 0.415 (good sensitivity)
• Turnover: $113,951 (high liquidity)
• Leverage Ratio: 9.01% (strong gearing)
• Payoff at 5% upside (3.69): $0.19 per share. This contract balances liquidity and leverage, ideal for a mid-term play if AMC sustains its momentum beyond the near-term expiry.
Trading View: Aggressive bulls should consider AMC20250808C3.5 into a confirmed breakout above $3.54, while cautious investors may opt for the August 15 contract to capture a broader move.

Backtest AMC Entertainment Holdings Stock Performance
The AMC stock has experienced an intraday surge of more than 11% on July 17, 2025. The backtest data shows that such an event has occurred 547 times over the past five years, with a 3-day win rate of 45.70%, a 10-day win rate of 43.88%, and a 30-day win rate of 43.51%. The average returns for 3, 10, and 30 days following the event are -0.02%, 0.62%, and 0.09%, respectively. The maximum return during the backtest period was 0.82%, which occurred on day 51 after the event.

AMC’s Breakout Potential and Sector Synergy: What to Watch Now
AMC’s 10.57% intraday surge is a high-stakes play driven by options speculation and analyst optimism, but sustainability will depend on follow-through volume and sector momentum. Key levels to monitor include the $3.54 intraday high, which aligns with the 200-day moving average, and the $3.15 price target from Barrington. The sector leader Warner Bros (WBD) gaining 3.26% adds a tailwind, suggesting broader confidence in entertainment recovery. Investors should watch for a sustained close above $3.54 to validate the breakout, while options traders can leverage high-gamma contracts like AMC20250808C3.5 for aggressive upside. If the move holds, AMC could retest its 52-week high of $5.76—making now a pivotal moment to act.