Ambev Shares Drop 3.24% As Bearish Signals Dominate Technical Outlook

Ambev (ABEV) recently experienced a 3.24% decline, closing at 2.39, marking two consecutive down days with a cumulative loss of 4.02%. This technical analysis synthesizes multiple indicators to evaluate the stock's trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal bearish signals. The July 7 session closed at the daily low (2.39) after testing resistance near 2.44, forming a bearish closing marubozu. This pattern, coupled with a break below the key support zone of 2.40–2.42 (established between June 27 and July 1), indicates persistent selling pressure. Immediate resistance now converges at 2.42–2.44, while critical support emerges at 2.35 (June 27 low) and 2.30 (June 25 swing low).
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (approx. 2.41) has been breached to the downside, reflecting short-term bearish momentum. However, the 100-day (approx. 2.32) and 200-day (approx. 2.25) averages remain below the current price, suggesting the longer-term uptrend is intact. The 50-day’s position above the 100-day and 200-day currently prevents a "death cross," but sustained trade below 2.41 may signal further short-term weakening.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD likely shows bearish divergence, with the MACD line (12/26-EMA difference) below its signal line (9-EMA of MACD), reinforcing the near-term downtrend. KDJ calculations approximate K at 47.6 and D at 49.2, placing the oscillator in neutral territory (J-line ~44.5). While not oversold, the absence of bullish momentum convergence suggests limited near-term reversal potential.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contraction is evident, with the 20-day Bollinger Band width narrowing. Price currently hovers near the lower band (approx. 2.34), indicating oversold conditions, but a lack of decisive reversal candles tempers bullish expectations. A close below 2.34 could trigger accelerated selling, whereas a rebound above the 20-day midline (approx. 2.44) would signal stabilization.
Volume-Price Relationship
The downswing on July 7 saw elevated volume (27.4M shares vs. 8.3M on July 3), confirming bearish conviction. However, the preceding rally on July 2 recorded even higher volume (36.0M), suggesting buyers retain capacity to return. Sustained downside on rising volume would validate bearish continuity, while low-volume retests of 2.40–2.44 resistance would indicate seller exhaustion.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads approximately 45, resting in neutral territory and diverging from overbought conditions observed in early July. While not yet oversold (<30), the current level implies room for further downside. A break below 40 would heighten bearish momentum signals, though traders should note RSI is a lagging indicator and may not precede price reversals.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the June 25 low (2.30) and July 2 high (2.51), key retracement levels include 2.46 (23.6%), 2.43 (38.2%), 2.41 (50%), 2.38 (61.8%), and 2.34 (78.6%). The breach of 2.41 (50%) and approach toward 2.38 (61.8%) align with the bearish candlestick and volume signals. A hold above 2.38 may induce consolidation, while a break below targets 2.34.
Confluence and Divergences
Confluence is observed in the 2.40–2.44 zone, where Fibonacci (38.2%–50%), the 50-day MA, and prior support-turned-resistance converge, amplifying its technical significance. Bearish alignment across moving averages, MACD, and volume validates near-term downside risks. No significant bullish divergences are detected, though neutral RSI and KDJ readings provide some buffer against immediate capitulation. Elevated volume on downside breaks and the absence of oversold oscillators suggest patience for confirmation of a reversal is prudent.