Ambev Jumps 2.98% As Technicals Signal Bullish Breakout Toward 2.52

Ambev (ABEV) rose 2.98% in the latest session, closing at 2.42 after two consecutive days of gains totaling 3.42%. This bullish momentum is analyzed below through multiple technical perspectives.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlesticks reveal consolidation around 2.32–2.44 between 2025-06-25 and 2025-07-14, culminating in a decisive bullish candle on 2025-07-16. This pattern closed near its high (2.42) after breaking above the 2.40 resistance, signaling near-term strength. Key support resides at 2.35 (2025-07-15 low), while resistance sits at the 2025-07-02 peak of 2.51. A close above 2.44 could trigger further upside.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (∼2.36) provided dynamic support during the July consolidation. The current price (2.42) now trades above all key MAs (50/100/200-day), confirming a bullish posture. Significantly, the 50-day crossed above the 200-day in Q2 2025, establishing a long-term "golden cross" uptrend. Near-term alignment of price above all major MAs suggests sustained upward momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD histogram readings have turned positive after a period of consolidation, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. KDJ shows the %K line (82) crossing above %D (78) in neutral territory, avoiding extreme overbought conditions. This confluence suggests room for further upside without immediate exhaustion signals.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands contracted notably between 2025-07-07 and 2025-07-14, reflecting reduced volatility. The subsequent expansion on 2025-07-16, with price closing near the upper band (2.44), signals breakout confirmation. Historically, such expansions preceded directional moves (e.g., 2024-08-15 breakout). Current positioning implies a target near 2.50–2.52.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 2.98% surge on 2025-07-16 occurred on 62.1M shares – a 48% volume increase versus the 10-day average. This high-volume breakout validates the price move. Notably, volume expansion accompanied every major rally (e.g., +134% volume on 2025-04-17 uptick), suggesting institutional participation in decisive moves.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (58) remains neutral, avoiding overbought (>70) territory despite the recent surge. This divergence from potential overheating suggests consolidation phases have effectively reset momentum. Historically, rallies persisted until RSI exceeded 70 (e.g., 2025-06-11 peak at RSI 73). Current positioning leaves runway for additional gains.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the 2025-06-25 low (2.30) and 2025-07-02 high (2.51) reveals critical thresholds. The 38.2% retracement (2.43) provided support during the July pullback, while the 23.6% level (2.46) now acts as minor resistance. A decisive break above 2.46 would open a path toward the 0% retracement at 2.51–2.52.
Confluence & Divergence
Confluence is observed at the 2.35–2.38 zone, where the 50-day MA, Fibonacci 50% retracement, and July swing lows align – affirming robust support. No material divergences exist between momentum oscillators and price action. Volume confirmation of the breakout, coupled with neutral RSI and Bollinger Band expansion, signals internally consistent bullish momentum.
In summary, Ambev exhibits a technically bullish structure. The confluence of volume-backed price breakouts, MA alignment, and absence of overbought signals suggests potential continuation toward the 2.50–2.52 resistance. Downside appears well-contained near 2.35 unless volume dissipates abruptly.