Ambev Extends Slide With 3.33% Drop As Technicals Signal Bearish Momentum

Ambev (ABEV) declined 3.33% in the latest session, extending its losing streak to two consecutive days with a cumulative 4.13% drop. This analysis examines ABEV’s technical dynamics using multiple methodologies.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals bearish patterns, including back-to-back long red candles on June 24–25, indicating strong selling pressure. Key resistance holds at $2.48–$2.50, where multiple highs were rejected in May and June 2025. Support emerges near $2.30, aligning with February and April 2025 lows. A breach below $2.30 may trigger further downside toward the $2.20 psychological level.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day EMA ($2.38) crossed below the 100-day EMA ($2.41) in early June, signaling bearish momentum. Current price ($2.32) trades below all three key moving averages (50/100/200-day), confirming a downtrend. The 200-day EMA at $2.30 represents critical long-term support. Sustained trading below this level would intensify bearish pressure, while a reversal above the 50-day EMA is needed to alter the trend structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bearish crossover with the signal line above the MACD line since June 10, reinforced by expanding negative histogram values. KDJ readings (K: 28, D: 35, J: 14) entered oversold territory, but neither indicator exhibits bullish divergence. While oversold KDJ suggests potential for a short-term bounce, MACD’s downward trajectory and the absence of divergence imply underlying weakness.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded during the June decline, with price breaking below the lower band ($2.36) on June 25—typically signaling oversold conditions. However, the lower band’s downward slope indicates bearish momentum dominance. A contraction in bands preceded the late-May breakdown, and current expansion suggests ongoing downside momentum. Reversion toward the middle band ($2.41) may face resistance.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution patterns accompany the sell-off: June 25’s volume (63M shares) exceeded the 20-day average (41M), validating bearish conviction. Earlier rallies (e.g., April 17’s 3% gain on 72M shares) showed healthy volume confirmation, whereas recent bounces had declining volume, indicating weak accumulation. This divergence signals limited buyer interest during recovery attempts.
Relative Strength Index
The 14-day RSI reads 31, approaching oversold territory but not yet extreme. Notably, it has failed to surpass 60 since early May, reflecting consistent negative momentum. While RSI near 30 warrants caution against aggressive shorts, the lack of bullish divergence or oversold reversals tempers recovery expectations.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low at $1.79 (January 2025) and high at $2.56 (October 2024), key retracements are: 23.6% ($2.42), 38.2% ($2.32), and 50% ($2.18). Current price hovers near the 38.2% level ($2.32), coinciding with observed support. A decisive break below this level could target $2.18 (50% retracement), while holding may prompt a technical bounce toward $2.42 (23.6%).
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence exists around $2.30–$2.32, where the 200-day EMA, Fibonacci 38.2% level, and historical support converge. However, bearish divergences are notable: RSI and KDJ oversold readings lack corresponding bullish price reversals, while volume confirms downside moves but not recoveries. MACD’s persistent negative histogram further undermines recovery prospects. Probable near-term outcomes include consolidation near $2.30–$2.35 or breakdown continuation toward $2.18, with reversal potential requiring a close above $2.41 (50-day EMA).