Ambac Financial Shares Rise 11% as Deal Deadline Extended with Oaktree Capital Management.

Ambac Financial (AMBC) stock jumped 11% after extending its sale agreement with Oaktree Capital Management, awaiting regulatory approval. Analysts project a substantial 89.75% upside potential with a "Buy" status and favorable price forecasts. The deal pertains to the sale of Ambac's legacy financial guarantee business, originally set to conclude at $420 million but now extended to December 31, 2025.

Ambac Financial (AMBC) stock experienced a notable 11% increase following the extension of its stock purchase agreement with Oaktree Capital Management. The extension, originally set to conclude on July 3, has been pushed back to December 31, 2025, pending final regulatory approval from the Wisconsin Office of the Commissioner of Insurance.

The agreement, valued at $420 million in cash, pertains to the sale of Ambac's legacy financial guarantee businesses—Ambac Assurance Corporation and Ambac U.K.—to funds managed by Oaktree Capital Management. Both parties remain fully committed to closing the transaction, with Oaktree actively working towards fulfilling the remaining conditions and securing regulatory approval [1][2][3].

Analysts project a substantial 89.75% upside potential for Ambac stock, with a "Buy" status and favorable price forecasts. The average 12-month price target for Ambac is 17, with a high estimate of 19 and a low estimate of 15 [3]. This optimistic outlook is driven by the strategic importance of the transaction in transforming Ambac into a pure-play specialty P&C insurance platform.

The extension comes with additional agreements, including a conversion right for a warrant to purchase Ambac common stock, which Oaktree will receive at closing. Additionally, arrangements have been made regarding Ambac's lease obligations and expense allocations to Ambac Assurance Corporation prior to the transaction's closure [4].

Ambac's stock performance over the past 52 weeks has been robust, with the stock price ranging from 5.99 to 13.64 [3]. The extension of the sale agreement and the positive analyst forecasts have contributed to the recent upward trend in Ambac's stock price.

References:
[1] https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/ambac-oaktree-extend-stock-purchase-agreement-for-financial-guarantee-business-thefly
[2] https://coverager.com/ambac-and-oaktree-extend-stock-purchase-agreement-for-financial-guarantee-business/
[3] https://uk.investing.com/equities/ambac-financial-group-inc-consensus-estimates
[4] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L6N3T40FC:0-ambac-extends-deadline-for-sale-of-financial-guarantee-businesses-to-oaktree-to-december/