Amazon Prime Day 2025 Faces Uncertainty Amid Tariff Chaos and AI Shopping Shift

Amazon's 2025 Prime Day, a four-day event starting on July 8, marks a significant shift from its original single-day format in 2015 and the two-day event in 2024. This year's Prime Day is shrouded in uncertainty, with independent sellers grappling with the ongoing U.S.-induced tariff chaos and its impact on their sales strategies. Around 60% of Amazon's sales come from these independent sellers, who are divided on how to approach the event. Some plan to discount their products to drive sales and boost their Amazon rankings, while others are cautious due to tariff and profit-margin pressures, risking a loss in sales volume and competitive edge.

Some sellers who stocked up on inventory early this year ahead of expected tariff increases are slashing prices as usual in hopes of reaping the Prime Day sales boost, while others would rather hold their low-tariff inventory and sell it at full price to bank more of a profit cushion in advance of what could be worsening tariff costs. The tariff situation has led to a new dynamic for Amazon customers as well. Some may choose to take advantage of the deals now, potentially doing early back-to-school shopping, while others may wait to see if prices increase due to future tariff pressures. President Trump's announcement that most “reciprocal” tariffs will go into effect in August instead of this month adds another layer of unpredictability for U.S. businesses.

Then there’s the AI equation. On Amazon’s own site and app, consumers can use Amazon’s Rufus shopping assistant to compare deal prices to the product’s price over the last 30 or 90 days. But Amazon doesn’t appear to be pushing the assistant in a materially more aggressive way than normal. That said, more people are researching deals via generative AI chatbots and assistants like ChatGPT and Perplexity. This shift in consumer behavior could significantly impact the overall sales dynamics of Prime Day.

Despite the uncertainty, some analysts predict that online sales on Amazon and other top retailers will increase by more than 28% during the July 8-11 period. This prediction is notable given the typical growth rate of less than 10% for the U.S. e-commerce industry. However, the high level of uncertainty surrounding consumer brands and spending makes this Prime Day feel particularly unpredictable.