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Here’s the takeaway: AMZN’s options market is pricing in a high-probability upside breakout, but bearish hedges at lower strikes suggest traders aren’t ignoring risks. Let’s break it down.
Bullish Sentiment at $250, Bearish Caution Below $240The options chain tells a clear story. For next Friday’s expiry (Jan 16), calls lead with 64,372 open contracts—nearly double the nearest competitor. This suggests big money is betting on a push above $250, a level that would test the 30D support/resistance zone (232.28–232.78) in reverse. Meanwhile, puts at $225–$240 have 27,579–27,542 open contracts, indicating hedgers are bracing for a drop below the 200D MA (217.89).
Block trades add intrigue. A 2,000-lot battle on calls (buy vs. sell) shows aggressive positioning around the current price. Separately, a 650-lot put trade at (expiring April 17) hints at long-term bearish bets, but the mixed signals here mean volatility could swing either way.
News Bolsters the Bull Case—For NowAmazon’s AWS division just posted a 20.2% YoY revenue surge, and analysts have bumped price targets to $315. Jim Cramer’s recent comments—calling the stock’s underperformance a "mistaken identity"—align with the options data. But here’s the catch: while the fundamentals are solid, the RSI at 82.9 suggests near-term overbought conditions. If the $246.92 intraday high holds, this could be a false breakout. Watch the 30D MA ($230.80) as a critical support level; a break below that would validate the put-heavy positioning.
Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for Aggressives, Puts for HedgesThe 0.74 put/call ratio (call dominance) and block trades suggest a high-conviction bullish setup, but don’t ignore the puts. A break above $250 would validate the call-heavy positioning, while a drop below $230 could trigger a wave of panic selling. The key is timing: if AMZN closes above $247.5 today (the second-highest call strike), it could signal a short-term inflection point. Either way, the options market is pricing in meaningful directional movement—the question is whether it’ll be up or down.
Bottom line: This is a stock at a crossroads. The fundamentals are strong, the options data leans bullish, but technicals warn of a potential pullback. Play it smart—use the puts as insurance and let the calls ride if the $250 level cracks.

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