Amazon (AMZN) Options Signal $230 Bullish Bias Amid $2.5B FTC Settlement: Here’s How to Position for the Ranging Trade

• Current Price Action: AMZN trades at $220.64, up 1.14% from $218.15, with volume at 8.8M shares.
• Options Imbalance: Call open interest dominates at $230 (34,333 contracts) and $225 (23,891), while puts peak at $215 (10,487).
• Technical Setup: RSI at 31.49 (oversold) and MACD (-1.24) suggest short-term bearishness, but long-term range-bound structure persists.
• Key Insight: Options data and block trades hint at a potential $230 breakout, but the FTC settlement introduces regulatory risk.

Bullish Call Accumulation at $230 and Bearish Put Hedges at $215 Signal Ranging Trade Setup

The options market reveals a clear concentration of call open interest at the $230 strike (34,333 contracts) and $225 (23,891) for Friday expiration, while puts peak at $215 (10,487). This distribution suggests institutional positioning for a short-term rally toward $230, supported by the 30D moving average at $229.03. However, the put/call ratio of 0.704 (favoring calls) indicates caution, as bearish sentiment remains embedded at $215 and $217.5.

Notable block trades amplify this narrative. A massive 830-contract trade in the AMZN20251121P240 put (expiring Nov 21, 2025) and a 500-contract AMZN20260116C250 call (Jan 16, 2026) suggest institutional hedging against long-term volatility. The $240 put block, valued at $1.35M, implies a bearish bias for deeper declines, while the $250 call purchase hints at bullish conviction for a 2026 rally. Traders should monitor whether AMZN breaks above the 200D MA at $214.79 to validate the bullish case.

FTC Settlement Adds Regulatory Overhang but May Not Derail Long-Term Bull Case

Amazon’s $2.5B settlement with the FTC—$1B in penalties and $1.5B in refunds—introduces regulatory scrutiny but may not significantly impact the stock’s fundamentals. Prime remains a core revenue driver, and the settlement’s immediate impact appears muted (stock flat post-announcement). However, the FTC’s emphasis on “subscription traps” could pressure Amazon’s customer acquisition strategies, potentially affecting margins.

Options data contradicts the news-driven bearishness: the heavy call accumulation at $230 and $225 suggests market participants expect the settlement to be priced in and for Amazon to stabilize. The key risk lies in a breakdown below the lower Bollinger Band at $218.87, which could trigger a test of the 200D MA at $214.79.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls at $230, Puts at $215, and Precision Entries for Stock

• Options Plays:
• Bullish: Buy the AMZN230C (Friday expiration) if AMZN closes above $222.5 (current support level). The $230 strike offers a 4.2% upside from the current price.
• Bearish: Buy the AMZN215P (Friday expiration) if AMZN dips below $218.87 (lower Bollinger Band). The $215 strike aligns with the 200D MA support.
• Long-Term: Hold the AMZN250C (Jan 16, 2026) for a 2026 rally, with a stop-loss at $235 to protect against near-term volatility.
• Stock Positioning:
• Entry: Consider buying AMZN near $222.5 if it holds above the 200D MA.
• Targets: First target at $231.5 (30D MA), second at $240 (Bollinger Band upper).
• Stop-Loss: Below $218.87 (lower Bollinger Band).

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Regulatory Risks

The interplay between bullish options positioning and the FTC settlement creates a high-probability ranging trade. While the $230 call accumulation and $215 put hedges suggest a $215–$230 trading range, the block trades on deep-out-of-the-money options (e.g., AMZN20251121P240) indicate long-term uncertainty. Traders should prioritize liquidity at the $230 and $215 strikes and use the 200D MA as a dynamic stop-loss. For those with a longer-term view, the AMZN250C offers exposure to Amazon’s core growth story, provided the company navigates regulatory challenges effectively.

In summary, AMZN’s technicals and options data point to a short-term bullish bias, but the settlement underscores the need for disciplined risk management. Positioning around key levels like $222.5 and $230 offers a balanced approach to capitalize on volatility while mitigating downside risks.