Amazon's 2025 Play: Is Rokos Right to Bet Big?

Billionaire hedge fund manager Chris Rokos has staked his reputation—and $216.67 million—on Amazon.com (AMZN) as one of his top picks for 2025. But is this e-commerce and cloud giant truly the best stock to buy in a year where AI stocks are stealing headlines and macroeconomic clouds loom? Let’s dissect the case.

The Case for Amazon: Dominance in E-Commerce and AWS

Rokos’s bullish stance hinges on Amazon’s structural advantages. The company controls 38% of U.S. online sales, a figure that grows each quarter, and its AWS division remains the gold standard in cloud computing, commanding nearly 40% of the global cloud market.

The Q3 2024 results underscore Rokos’s optimism: double-digit revenue growth driven by advertising and AI product expansion, plus record 11% operating margins, largely due to efficiencies in international e-commerce and AWS’s high-margin services. Amazon’s $100 billion 2025 capital expenditure plan, heavily weighted toward AI infrastructure, also aligns with Rokos’s global macro thesis that AI will reshape industries—and Amazon will be the backbone.

The Data Backing Rokos’s Bet

Amazon’s market cap of $1.91 trillion reflects its scale, but its institutional backing is equally telling: 339 hedge funds hold AMZN, including Rokos’s, signaling broad consensus. The Q4 2024 13F filings show Rokos’s stake ranks fifth in his portfolio, a position reserved for companies with “structural tailwinds,” in his words.

The Risks: AWS Stumbles and AI’s Siren Song

Not all signals are green. BMO Capital cut its AMZN price target to $235 from $280 in early 2025, citing softening demand for AWS amid macroeconomic uncertainty and competition from cloud upstarts like Microsoft’s Azure. AWS’s growth has indeed slowed, with Q3 revenue rising just 10% year-over-year, down from 30%+ in 2021.

Meanwhile, Rokos’s own fund has faced volatility: a 51% gain in 2022 during market turmoil contrasts with 2023’s mixed returns. The research note also hints at an unnamed AI stock outperforming Amazon since early 2025—a plug for a paid report, but it underscores a broader truth. Pure-play AI companies like Nvidia (NVDA) or C3.ai (AI) are attracting short-term speculative flows, while Amazon’s broader portfolio lacks the “pure AI” narrative.

Rokos’s Play: Macro Bet or Misplaced Faith?

Rokos’s strategy isn’t just about Amazon’s fundamentals—it’s about geopolitical tailwinds. The fund’s 2022 gains, for example, leveraged tariff-driven U.S. manufacturing shifts. In 2025, he’s betting on Amazon’s ability to capitalize on AI’s long-term infrastructure needs, even if short-term AWS growth falters.

The question is whether Amazon’s dominance in e-commerce and cloud can offset these headwinds. Its $100 billion capex—a bet on AI-driven efficiency—could pay off as inference costs drop, per Rokos. But investors must weigh that against valuation: Amazon trades at 37x forward earnings, premium to peers like Alphabet (GOOGL) at 24x.

Conclusion: A Solid Bet, But Not Without Contenders

Amazon’s case is compelling. Its e-commerce and AWS moats, combined with a massive AI investment, give it a long-term edge. The 11% operating margins and $100B capex suggest a company optimizing for both profit and growth.

Yet, the risks are real. AWS’s slowdown and the allure of AI-focused stocks mean Amazon isn’t the only game in town. Rokos’s bet is a multi-year call, not a short-term trade—investors need patience.

For now, Amazon’s scale, institutional backing, and Rokos’s track record argue in its favor. But with a $1.91 trillion market cap, it’s a king in its castle, not a disruptor in a new frontier. The best stock of 2025? Possibly. But the race is far from over.