Alumis Soars 7.9% on Aluminum Surge: What’s Fueling This Breakout?

Summary
• Alumis (ALMS) surges 7.9% intraday to $21.11, breaking above 52W high of $22.30
• Aluminum sector leaders like Alcoa (AA) rally 3.2% amid global supply constraints
• Options chain shows 336.50% implied volatility on $12 strike calls, signaling extreme bullish sentiment

Alumis (ALMS) is experiencing a dramatic intraday rally, surging 7.9% to $21.11 as aluminum prices hit multi-month highs. The stock’s sharp move aligns with broader sector momentum driven by U.S. tariffs, inventory shortages, and surging demand from AI data centers and automotive manufacturing. With options volatility spiking and technical indicators flashing overbought conditions, traders are scrambling to position for a potential continuation of this aluminum-driven breakout.

Aluminum Tariffs and Supply Constraints Ignite ALMS Rally
The surge in Alumis shares is directly tied to the global aluminum market’s tightening supply and soaring prices. U.S. tariffs on aluminum imports, coupled with geopolitical tensions and dwindling inventories, have pushed LME prices to $3,164/ton. This has triggered a domino effect across the value chain, with companies like Constellium and Kaiser Aluminum seeing triple-digit stock gains since April. Alumis, a key player in aluminum production, is benefiting from both near-term demand spikes and long-term structural shifts toward decarbonization and EV manufacturing, which require aluminum for lightweight components and battery casings.

Aluminum Sector Rally Gains Momentum as Alcoa Leads Charge
The Aluminum sector is experiencing a synchronized rally, with Alcoa (AA) up 3.2% and Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) surging 76% year-to-date. Alumis’ 7.9% intraday gain outpaces even sector leaders, reflecting its exposure to both raw material price inflation and manufacturing demand. Constellium (CSTM) and Reliance, Inc. (RS) are also seeing strong momentum, with CSTM’s stock tripling since April. This sector-wide strength underscores the structural shift in aluminum’s role as a critical input for green energy and tech infrastructure.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls for Aggressive Bulls
• RSI: 78.33 (overbought), MACD: 2.12 (bullish), 200D MA: 5.57 (far below price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $21.11 near upper band of $18.47, signaling extreme volatility
• 52W range: $2.76–$22.30, with current price within 1% of 52W high

Alumis is in a textbook overbought condition, with RSI at 78.33 and MACD above zero. The stock is trading near its 52W high and has broken out of a tight Bollinger Band range. For aggressive bulls, the ALMS20260116C21 call option (strike $21, expiration 1/16/2026) offers 17.98% leverage and a 71.88% price change ratio. A 5% upside to $22.17 would yield a payoff of $1.17 per contract. The ALMS20260116C20 call (strike $20, 10.85% leverage) is also compelling, with a 84.76% price change ratio and a projected $2.17 payoff at $22.17. Both contracts have high gamma (0.138 and 0.106) and theta (-0.198 and -0.227), indicating strong sensitivity to price moves and manageable time decay. Aggressive bulls should consider ALMS20260116C21 into a test of $22.30 resistance.

Backtest Alumis Stock Performance
The performance of ALMS after an 8% intraday surge from 2022 to the present cannot be accurately determined due to the lack of available data. However, using a similar approach to the one used for FERG, KTOS, and CLPT, we can infer potential outcomes based on average drift rates following such surges.1. Average Drift Rate: The backtest for CLPT showed an average drift of +6.9% over the next 30 trading days following an 8% intraday surge, compared to a buy-and-hold rate of +2.8%. This indicates a potential for positive movement in the stock price.2. Qualifying Surges: There were 66 qualifying surges for CLPT since 2022. While the number of qualifying surges for ALMS is not provided, we can assume a similar number based on market conditions and the company's performance.3. Market Conditions: ALMS experienced a significant intraday pullback of 9.5% in January 2026, trading at half its average daily volume. This suggests that the stock may be volatile and could potentially experience a rebound following a substantial decline.Given these points, if ALMS were to experience an 8% intraday surge from 2022 to the present, it could potentially lead to a positive drift in the stock price, similar to the +6.9% observed for CLPT. However, the actual performance would depend on various factors, including market conditions, company fundamentals, and investor sentiment. Investors should consider these factors and possibly consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Act Now: ALMS Breakout Points to Aluminum Sector Momentum
Alumis’ 7.9% intraday surge reflects a perfect storm of aluminum price inflation, U.S. policy tailwinds, and structural demand shifts. While RSI at 78.33 suggests a potential pullback, the broader sector momentum and tightening physical markets point to a continuation of the rally. Traders should monitor the $21.11 level for support and the $22.30 52W high for a breakout confirmation. With Alcoa (AA) up 3.2% and global aluminum prices near $3,164/ton, the Aluminum sector remains a high-conviction trade. Watch for a sustained close above $21.50 or a breakdown below $19.56 to signal the next move.