Alumis Soars 13% on Groundbreaking Psoriasis Trial Results: A Biotech Breakout in the Making?

Summary
• Alumis (ALMS) surges 13.03% intraday to $18.34, reversing half its gains by close
• Phase 3 trials show envudeucitinib achieves 65% PASI90 and 40% PASI100 skin clearance
• Analysts raise price targets to $32–$50, with Guggenheim upgrading to $32
• Options activity surges, with 2026-01-16 $17 call options trading at 100.82% price change

Alumis (ALMS) has ignited a market frenzy after its envudeucitinib psoriasis drug delivered blockbuster Phase 3 results. The stock’s 13.03% intraday surge—despite a 95% opening gap—reflects both clinical validation and institutional optimism. With $175M in new capital and analyst price targets climbing to $50, the biotech’s rally now hinges on regulatory timelines and commercialization readiness.

Phase 3 Trial Triumphs Ignite Biotech Optimism
Alumis’ 13.03% intraday surge stems from its envudeucitinib achieving 65% PASI90 and 40% PASI100 skin clearance in Phase 3 trials, outperforming J&J’s Icotrokinra and Takeda’s Zasocitinib. The drug’s rapid onset of efficacy—significant improvements by Week 4—positions it as a disruptive force in the $12B psoriasis market. Analysts at Guggenheim, Oppenheimer, and Morgan Stanley have raised price targets to $32–$50, citing envudeucitinib’s potential to redefine treatment standards. Institutional buying by Russell Investments and insider purchases further validate the thesis, while the $175M capital raise addresses near-term cash needs.

Biotech Sector Rally Gains Momentum as Amgen Leads
The broader biotech sector has rallied alongside Alumis, with Amgen (AMGN) surging 3.38% on strong earnings and pipeline optimism. Alumis’ 13.03% move outperforms the sector’s average, reflecting its speculative growth profile. While Amgen’s established commercialization capabilities anchor the sector, Alumis’ envudeucitinib offers high-risk, high-reward exposure to the psoriasis market. The sector’s 6.26% 100D moving average suggests sustained momentum, but Alumis’ -9.55 PE ratio highlights its reliance on clinical milestones versus earnings.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Alumis’ Volatility and Analyst Optimism
• 200D MA: $5.35 (far below current price)
• RSI: 68.84 (overbought but not extreme)
• MACD: 0.84 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $18.53 (upper) vs. $16.70 (intraday low)

Alumis’ technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with key resistance at $18.53 and support at $16.70. The stock’s 13.03% intraday surge, coupled with a 231.72% implied volatility spike, creates fertile ground for options strategies. Two top picks from the 2026-01-16 chain:

• ALMS20260116C17 (Call, $17 strike):
- IV: 159.01% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.67 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.118 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.085 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 37,165 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($19.26): $2.26/share
- This call benefits from Alumis’ 13.03% rally trajectory, with high gamma amplifying gains if the stock breaks $18.53.

• ALMS20260116P15 (Put, $15 strike):
- IV: 164.50% (high volatility)
- Delta: -0.19 (moderate downside protection)
- Theta: -0.051 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.054 (modest sensitivity)
- Turnover: 18,890 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($19.26): $4.26/share
- This put offers downside hedging at a 61.08% leverage ratio, ideal for investors holding long-term positions.

Action: Aggressive bulls should buy ALMS20260116C17 into a breakout above $18.53. Conservative investors may pair ALMS20260116P15 with long stock to hedge against a 66.67% price change risk.

Backtest Alumis Stock Performance
The backtest of ALMS's performance following a 13% intraday increase from 2022 to the present reveals favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with the 3-Day win rate at 49.44%, the 10-Day win rate at 45.00%, and the 30-Day win rate at 51.67%. The maximum return observed was 14.29% over 30 days, indicating the strategy's effectiveness in capturing intraday volatility.

Alumis at Inflection Point: Regulatory Hurdles and Market Sentiment Will Define Next Move
Alumis’ 13.03% rally hinges on its ability to convert envudeucitinib’s clinical success into regulatory approval and commercial traction. With a 231.72% implied volatility spike and analyst price targets climbing to $50, the stock remains a high-conviction play for those willing to navigate its -9.55 PE ratio. Watch for a $18.53 breakout to confirm momentum or a pullback to $16.70 as a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, sector leader Amgen’s 3.38% gain underscores the biotech sector’s resilience. Investors should prioritize ALMS20260116C17 for aggressive upside or ALMS20260116P15 for downside protection, while monitoring the $175M capital raise’s impact on liquidity.