Alumis Outlook: A Mixed Bag of Signals Amid a Weakening Trend

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Alumis (ALMS.O) is currently under pressure, with a -19.03% price drop over the last 5 days, and a weak technical score of 4.27. Investors should proceed cautiously.

News Highlights

Recent headlines highlight a mix of broader economic and policy developments:

• U.S. Vaccine Policy Shifts: The Department of Health and Human Services, under Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has revised how vaccines are approved and recommended—potentially affecting biotech companies like Alumis.
• Uranium Industry Hints at Revival: President Trump’s fast-tracked approval for a Utah uranium mine signals potential industry interest, though prices remain a key factor for real revival.
• Crypto ETF Moves: REX Shares plans to launch Ethereum and Solana ETFs with new SEC staking guidelines, possibly signaling broader investor interest in crypto assets.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Alumis has one active analyst on the record: Mitchell S. Kapoor from HC Wainwright & Co., who gave a recent "Strong Buy" rating on December 18, 2025.

• Average Rating Score (simple mean): 5.00
• Weighted Rating Score (performance-weighted): 5.65
• Rating Consistency: There are differences in market expectations—analysts are optimistic, but the stock price trend is falling.
• Price Trend Mismatch: The optimistic analyst ratings (Strong Buy) contrast with the stock’s current performance, which is down sharply (-19.03%).

Key Fundamental Factors

• Revenue-Market Value (Revenue-MV): -2.92 (internal diagnostic score: 1)
• Gross Profit Margin (%): 100.00% (internal diagnostic score: 2)
• Profit-Market Value (Profit-MV): 49.01% (internal diagnostic score: 2)
• Current Assets Turnover Ratio: 6.33% (internal diagnostic score: 1)
• Cash Utilization (Cash-UP): 45.10% (internal diagnostic score: 2)

These values suggest mixed performance—strong gross margins but weaker revenue and profit relative to market valuation. Alumis’ overall fundamental score is 3.47, reflecting moderate challenges.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money investors and institutional capital are currently showing a negative trend in Alumis, with inflow ratios across all categories below 50%:

• Small investor inflow ratio: 49.73%
• Medium investor inflow ratio: 49.59%
• Large investor inflow ratio: 45.73%
• Extra-large investor inflow ratio: 42.34%

The overall inflow ratio is at 43.66%, which is below average, but the fund flow score of 7.31 (internal diagnostic score) still suggests good institutional sentiment, given the negative trend in price.

Key Technical Signals

Alumis is facing a challenging technical landscape with 3 bearish indicators and 0 bullish signals in the latest 5-day window. The technical score is 4.27, indicating weak momentum and caution for new positions.

Internal Diagnostic Scores (0-10) for Recent Indicators

• Long Upper Shadow: 6.66 – neutral rise
• Long Lower Shadow: 6.25 – neutral rise
• Three Black Crows: 1.00 – strong bearish signal
• MACD Death Cross: 3.87 – neutral bias
• Bullish Harami Cross: 1.33 – bearish bias
• Marubozu White: 6.54 – bullish bias

Recent Indicators by Date

• 2025-12-15: Three Black Crows
• 2025-12-17: Bullish Harami Cross
• 2025-12-18: Long Upper Shadow and Marubozu White
• 2025-12-19: MACD Death Cross
• 2026-01-02: Long Lower Shadow

The mix of patterns shows a volatile and directionless trend, with bearish signals (Three Black Crows, Bullish Harami Cross) dominating recent chart behavior.

Conclusion

Alumis faces a challenging outlook with mixed signals across fundamentals and technicals. Analyst optimism is not yet reflected in the price, and technicals remain bearish. Investors should consider waiting for a clearer trend or a pullback to more favorable levels before entering new positions. Given the current mix of weak fundamentals and bearish technicals, patience may be the best strategy at this time.