Alumis (ALMS) Surges 11.8% on Breakthrough Psoriasis Data and Analyst Upgrades – Is This the Start of a Biotech Rally?

Summary
• Alumis (ALMS) rockets 11.8% to $24.72, hitting its 52-week high of $24.83
• Insider buying and $50 price target from Oppenheimer fuel optimism
• Phase 3 trial success for Envudeucitinib sparks sector-wide interest

Alumis Inc. (ALMS) has ignited a frenzy in the biotech sector, surging over 11% in a single trading session amid a perfect storm of clinical validation, insider confidence, and analyst upgrades. The stock’s meteoric rise—from $5 to $24 in 60 days—has positioned it as a breakout contender in the TYK2 inhibitor race, with a $2.5 billion market cap now within reach. Today’s surge, driven by positive plaque psoriasis trial data and a $50 price target from Oppenheimer, underscores the stock’s potential to redefine its niche in the $12 billion psoriasis market.

Clinical Catalysts and Analyst Momentum Fuel ALMS Surge
Alumis’ 11.8% intraday rally stems from a trifecta of catalysts: (1) Positive topline results from its Phase 3 ONWARD trials for Envudeucitinib, showing 65% PASI 90 and 40% PASI 100 efficacy in plaque psoriasis patients; (2) Insider purchases totaling $24 million from directors and Foresite Labs, signaling management confidence; and (3) Analyst upgrades from Oppenheimer ($50 target) and Morgan Stanley ($33 target), with a $37.67 consensus price. The stock’s 52-week high of $24.83 aligns with its 92.7% upside potential relative to current levels, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy as institutional and retail investors chase momentum.

Options Playbook: Leveraging ALMS’ Volatility with High-Gamma Contracts
• MACD: 2.90 (above signal line 1.83), RSI: 81.75 (overbought), Bollinger Upper Band: $21.71 (below current price)
• 200-day MA: $5.74 (far below $24.72), Turnover Rate: 3.72% (healthy liquidity)

Alumis’ technicals scream short-term bullish momentum, with RSI at overbought levels and MACD diverging sharply. The stock’s 52-week range of $2.76–$24.83 suggests a breakout from its 5-year low, supported by insider buying and analyst upgrades. For options traders, the key is to capitalize on high implied volatility (IV) and gamma while avoiding overbought RSI traps. Two contracts stand out:

• ALMS20260220C24 (Call, $24 strike, 2/20 expiry):
- IV: 93.07% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.592 (moderate sensitivity)
- Gamma: 0.0528 (strong price responsiveness)
- Turnover: 202,745 (liquid)
- Leverage: 7.66% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($26.00): $2.00/share gain. This contract balances IV and liquidity, ideal for riding the 5% upside scenario.

• ALMS20260220C25 (Call, $25 strike, 2/20 expiry):
- IV: 88.11% (mid-range)
- Delta: 0.534 (moderate)
- Gamma: 0.0571 (high responsiveness)
- Turnover: 6,069 (adequate)
- Leverage: 9.42% (aggressive)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($26.00): $1.00/share gain. This option offers higher leverage with manageable IV, perfect for aggressive bulls.

Action: Buy ALMS20260220C24 for a 5% upside bet or ALMS20260220C25 for higher leverage. Exit if RSI dips below 70 or the 200-day MA ($5.74) is breached.

Backtest Alumis Stock Performance
The backtest of ALMS's performance following a 12% intraday increase from 2022 to the present reveals favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with the 3-Day win rate at 48.11%, the 10-Day win rate at 43.78%, and the 30-Day win rate at 50.27%. The maximum return during the backtest was 14.29% over 30 days, indicating the strategy's effectiveness in capturing intraday volatility.

ALMS at Inflection Point: Ride the Wave or Secure Profits?
Alumis’ 11.8% surge is a textbook case of momentum-driven biotech euphoria, fueled by clinical validation and analyst upgrades. While the stock’s 92.7% upside potential is enticing, its -15.06 P/E ratio and unprofitable Q4 results (EPS -$1.06) highlight execution risks. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA ($5.74) as a critical support level and watch for a pullback to $21.89 (intraday low) as a potential entry. With Amgen (AMGN) up 0.29% as a sector leader, the biotech rally shows no signs of slowing—but only for those who act now.