Alumis (ALMS) Surges 9.7% on Breakthrough Psoriasis Data and Insider Buying – Is This the Start of a Biotech Rally?

Summary
• Alumis (ALMS) rockets 9.7% intraday to $24.26, hitting its 52-week high of $24.83
• Insider purchases of $10M+ by directors and Foresite Labs signal strong conviction
• Analysts upgrade price targets to $50, with a $37.67 average consensus

Alumis Inc. (ALMS) has ignited a frenzy in the biotech sector, surging 9.7% in a single trading session amid groundbreaking phase 3 trial results for its TYK2 inhibitor Envudeucitinib. The stock’s meteoric rise from $5 to $23 in 60 days has now pushed it to a critical juncture, with insider buying, analyst upgrades, and clinical validation converging to fuel momentum. Traders are now weighing whether this is a short-term spike or the dawn of a new bull phase for Alumis.

Clinical Catalysts and Insider Conviction Drive ALMS’s Surge
Alumis’s explosive move stems from a trifecta of catalysts: (1) Positive phase 3 ONWARD1/ONWARD2 trial data showing 65% PASI 90 and 40% PASI 100 efficacy in plaque psoriasis, (2) insider purchases totaling $24M by directors and Foresite Labs, and (3) analyst upgrades from Oppenheimer ($50) and Guggenheim ($32). The trial results position Envudeucitinib as a potential blockbuster in the $10B psoriasis market, with a NDA filing slated for H2 2026. Meanwhile, insider buying—46% and 7.78% position increases—signals management’s confidence in the stock’s near-term trajectory.

Biotech Sector Rally Gains Steam as AMGN Gains 1.05%
The broader biotech sector is amplifying Alumis’s momentum, with Amgen (AMGN) rising 1.05% on optimism around its bispecific antibody pipeline. While AMGN’s growth is driven by late-stage assets, Alumis’s leap is fueled by early-stage clinical validation and insider conviction. This divergence highlights a sector-wide shift toward high-risk, high-reward biotech plays, with Alumis’s 9.7% surge outpacing AMGN’s 1.05% gain by nearly 9x.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on ALMS’s Bullish Momentum
• RSI: 81.75 (overbought)
• MACD: 2.90 (bullish), Signal: 1.83, Histogram: 1.08
• 200D MA: $5.74 (far below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: $4.60–$21.71 (price near upper band)

Alumis’s technicals scream short-term bullish momentum, with RSI in overbought territory and MACD widening. Key support/resistance levels at $11.19–$11.48 (30D) and $4.34–$4.73 (200D) suggest a breakout above $24.83 could trigger a retest of the 52W high. For leveraged exposure, consider XBI (iShares Biotechnology ETF) or IBB (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF), though liquidity constraints may favor options.

Top Options Picks:
1. ALMS20260220C24 (Call, $24 strike, 2/20 expiration):
- IV: 84.54% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 8.20% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.596 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.047 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0577 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $213,807 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($25.47): $1.47/share
- Why: High gamma and liquidity make this ideal for a 5% rally, with theta decay manageable given the 2/20 expiration.
2. ALMS20260220P24 (Put, $24 strike, 2/20 expiration):
- IV: 94.57% (very high)
- Leverage: 9.46% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.402 (moderate bearishness)
- Theta: -0.024 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.0515 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $550 (lower liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% downside ($23.05): $0.95/share
- Why: Acts as a hedge against a pullback, with high gamma to benefit from volatility swings.

Action: Aggressive bulls should buy ALMS20260220C24 into a breakout above $24.83. Conservative traders may pair it with ALMS20260220P24 for a collar strategy.

Backtest Alumis Stock Performance
Backtesting the performance of ALMS after a 10% intraday surge from 2022 to the present is challenging due to the lack of eligible events. The surge threshold may need to be lowered to capture more events, as no valid event set could be generated for a post-event performance back-test with the current threshold.1. Lower the Surge Threshold: To improve the backtesting results, consider lowering the surge threshold to 5% or 8% to increase the number of eligible events.2. Evaluate the Backtesting Results: Even with a lower threshold, the backtesting might still yield limited results due to the volatile nature of ALMS's performance. Therefore, it's essential to evaluate the backtesting results critically, considering both the increased number of events and the potential bias introduced by the lower threshold.In conclusion, while backtesting ALMS's performance after a 10% intraday surge from 2022 to the present is currently not feasible due to the lack of eligible events, lowering the surge threshold can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the stock's performance under various market conditions. However, this should be done with caution, as the results may still be influenced by the inherent volatility of ALMS's price movements.

Alumis at a Pivotal Crossroads – Act Now Before the FDA Filing
Alumis’s 9.7% surge is a high-stakes inflection point, driven by clinical validation, insider buying, and analyst optimism. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a continuation of the rally, but traders must act swiftly before the NDA filing in H2 2026. For context, sector leader Amgen (AMGN) is up 1.05%, signaling broader biotech strength. Investors should monitor the $24.83 52W high as a critical breakout level and consider ALMS20260220C24 for leveraged exposure. If the $24.83 level holds, this could be the start of a multi-month bull run—don’t miss the window.