Altseason Delayed Altcoins Underperform Bitcoin Post-Halving

CryptoCon’s analysis, based on the halving theory, predicts that altseason will commence in 2025, mirroring the post-halving surges observed in 2017 and 2021. This projection is grounded in the historical patterns where Bitcoin’s halving events have been followed by significant rallies in altcoins. However, the current market dynamics present a different picture. Since March 2024, altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin, raising questions about the timing and completion of the current market cycle.

Altcoins have struggled to gain traction despite Bitcoin’s upward price action over the past six months. This divergence from historical patterns has led to a debate among market observers about whether the current bull cycle is following a different trajectory. The prolonged absence of altseason has sparked discussions on whether the market is in a transitional phase or if the cycle is yet to reach its peak.

CryptoCon’s analysis highlights that Bitcoin’s recent halving did trigger a rally, but altcoins have not followed the same trajectory. Most altcoins have performed relatively poorly since March 2024, challenging Bitcoin in both price and market share. This lack of a shift in favor of altcoins, despite historical patterns, is a primary point of analysis for market observers. The high dominance of Bitcoin continues to keep pressure on alternative cryptocurrencies, with CryptoCon noting that a true altseason has not begun.

The absence of altseason has led to questions about whether the current cycle resembles previous bullish phases or marks a deviation. Investors expecting altcoin rallies have seen little confirmation that such a phase is underway. The longer altcoins remain suppressed, the more questions arise about the current stage of the crypto bull market.

CryptoCon’s halving cycle analysis suggests that altseason may be delayed. The model visualizes emotional and structural phases of market cycles tied to Bitcoin’s halving events. Historically, each halving preceded a strong Bitcoin rally, followed by a drop in dominance and a surge in altcoin performance. The present cycle has mimicked the original trend in the appreciation of Bitcoin, but the lack of another altseason indicates that the cycle is not yet finished. According to the sine wave analysis, an altseason is predicted in 2025, similar to the trends of 2017 and 2021. This means that altcoin rallies can potentially materialize, but these may not come as early as anticipated due to macroeconomic fears or changes in sentiment.

While technical patterns suggest a possible altseason, external factors continue to suppress broader market enthusiasm. Rising global tensions have introduced uncertainty into the market, reducing risk appetite among investors. Fear-driven narratives act as a “hammer to sentiment,” especially when prices show little movement. As Bitcoin dominance remains high and altcoins struggle, market participants are watching closely for any technical or fundamental signs that could mark the beginning of a true altseason.