Alto Ingredients: Analysts Cut Price Target to $4.00 Amid Revenue and Earnings Misses

Alto Ingredients reported Q2 revenues of $218m, missing expectations, and a statutory loss of $0.15, 43% larger than predicted. Analysts have cut their 2025 price target to $4.00, with forecasts showing a 55% decline in losses and a 2.8% annualized revenue decline, worse than the industry average of 4.5%.

Alto Ingredients (ALTO) reported mixed financial results for the second quarter of 2025, with revenues of $218.44 million falling short of expectations and a net loss of $0.15 per share, 43% larger than the predicted loss of $0.18 per share [1]. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +16.67%, with the company surpassing consensus EPS estimates by 0.10% in revenues [1].

The company's quarterly loss of $0.15 per share compares to a loss of $0.05 per share a year ago, indicating a significant increase in losses. Analysts have cut their 2025 price target to $4.00, reflecting a 55% decline in losses and a 2.8% annualized revenue decline, which is worse than the industry average of 4.5% [1].

Alto Ingredients' revenues of $218.44 million for the quarter ended June 2025 were 7.2% lower than the year-ago revenues of $236.47 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters [1]. The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement will depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Despite the quarter's challenges, analysts remain optimistic about the company's long-term prospects. All covering analysts tracked by LSEG rate Alto Ingredients a 'buy,' with a consensus target of $4.00, suggesting a 74% upside from recent prices [3]. This positive outlook hinges on expected earnings improvements as government credits like the 45Z tax credit kick in and strategic moves start to bear fruit.

Alto Ingredients plans to ramp up CO2 utilization at two core plants, banking on the newly extended 45Z tax credit to provide up to $18 million in credits over two years. The company's liquid CO2 facility acquisition in the West has also contributed to a significant increase in gross profit by $5.6 million for the second quarter of 2025 [2].

In summary, while Alto Ingredients reported mixed Q2 results, analysts remain optimistic about the company's long-term prospects. The stock's immediate price movement will depend on management's commentary and the company's ability to execute its strategic plans.

References:
[1] https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/alto-ingredients-alto-reports-q2-loss-beats-revenue-estimates
[2] https://www.ainvest.com/news/food-ingredients-shares-rise-6-88-intraday-alto-ingredients-reported-increased-gross-profit-5-6-million-q2-2025-2508/
[3] https://finimize.com/content/alto-ingredients-faces-losses-but-analysts-still-see-upside