Altlayer/Bitcoin (ALTBTC) Market Overview

• Price fell sharply from 2.3e-07 to 8e-08, with key support testing at 1.6e-07.
• Volume spiked during the breakdown, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI hit oversold levels, but price failed to rebound, indicating weak demand.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction earlier, followed by a sharp expansion.
• MACD remained bearish throughout, with no sign of bullish divergence.

Altlayer/Bitcoin (ALTBTC) opened at 2.3e-07 on October 10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.8e-07 on October 11 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 2.3e-07 and a low of 8e-08, with total trading volume of 14,925,133.0 and notional turnover of 2.2e-04 BTC over the 24-hour period.

The price action over the past day was highly bearish, marked by a sharp decline that began around 21:30 ET, breaking through key support levels with heavy volume. The candlestick pattern formed during the breakdown resembles a bearish engulfing, confirming the shift in sentiment. A doji formed at the low of 8e-08, suggesting indecision and potential exhaustion of the downward move, but the lack of follow-through buying has kept the bearish outlook intact.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the price below both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50- and 100-day moving averages appear to be in a downtrend, with the 200-day line likely acting as a major resistance in the near term.

MACD remains in negative territory with a downward slope, showing no sign of reversing bullish momentum. RSI hit 20 at the end of the session, indicating oversold conditions, but without a strong rebound, the bearish trend is expected to continue. Bollinger Bands initially contracted, signaling a period of consolidation, followed by a sharp expansion during the breakdown move, reflecting heightened volatility. Price appears to be bouncing off the lower band, suggesting a potential pause before another leg down.

Volume spiked during the breakdown, with the largest spike at 21:30 ET when the price dropped from 2.2e-07 to 1.1e-07. Notional turnover also surged during this period, confirming the move lower. No significant divergence between price and turnover was observed, indicating that the bearish move was broadly supported.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the high of 2.3e-07 to the low of 8e-08 show the current price at the 61.8% retracement level at 1.6e-07. A break below this level could target the 78.6% level at around 1.1e-07, with further bearish potential if the 1.0e-07 level is tested.

The backtest strategy described involves entering a short position when price breaks below a 50-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a spike in volume. A stop-loss is placed just above the recent high, and a take-profit is set at the next Fibonacci level or when RSI shows signs of divergence. The strategy assumes a continuation of the bearish trend and does not account for sudden bullish surprises or news-driven volatility.