Altcoins Show Signs of Recovery as Market Bounces 50% Below Highs

Altcoins have faced years of underperformance as Bitcoin has continued to dominate the crypto market. Despite several short-lived rallies, most altcoins remain significantly below their previous highs, burdened by investor skepticism and the concentration of capital in Bitcoin. However, recent developments suggest a potential shift in sentiment. Strong altcoins have started to show signs of recovery, demonstrating resilience as broader market conditions improve.

Top analyst Carl Runefelt has shared a technical setup indicating that the altcoin market is now bouncing off a major support zone. This movement has sparked debates among traders and investors about whether this marks the beginning of a long-awaited altseason or merely a temporary relief bounce before further downside. The bounce coincides with fading macroeconomic uncertainty and returning liquidity to the crypto market. However, key resistance levels remain untouched for many projects, and overall confidence in altcoins hasn’t fully returned. While the current setup is promising, confirmation will depend on whether this rally can break above critical levels and sustain higher prices.

Altcoins are currently trading nearly 50% below their all-time highs, but sentiment is beginning to shift. Bulls are preparing for an expansive move across the board, with growing anticipation that a breakout could materialize once Ethereum clears its current resistance zone. Since early May, Ethereum has been trading in a well-defined consolidation range, and altcoins have mirrored this sideways behavior, struggling to gain momentum without a clear signal from the market’s second-largest asset.

Carl Runefelt recently shared insights suggesting that the altcoin market is showing signs of life. By analyzing the TOTAL3 chart—which tracks the combined market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum—Runefelt highlights that altcoins are bouncing off key support in Bitcoin terms. This bounce could indicate the beginning of a recovery rally, especially if capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins accelerates in the coming sessions.

Historically, altcoins thrive when Ethereum leads the charge. A confirmed breakout above the $2,800 resistance zone could ignite broad participation and kickstart a new altseason. The current market structure suggests that many investors are positioning early, anticipating that macroeconomic clarity and market stability will fuel risk-on behavior. However, the rally is not yet confirmed. Bulls still need Ethereum to break out decisively and sustain momentum above recent highs. If that happens, many oversold altcoins could see sharp recoveries and set the stage for a broader market expansion. For now, patience and timing remain key as traders watch Ethereum and TOTAL3 closely for signals of the next leg up.

The TOTAL3 chart, which measures the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, is showing early signs of recovery after a sustained period of weakness. As of now, the chart reflects a bounce from the $830 billion level, which aligns closely with the 100-week simple moving average (SMA), currently acting as dynamic support. This level has historically served as a critical pivot zone, especially in mid-cycle consolidations. The market cap sits near $875 billion, still over 40% below the previous cycle’s peak, but with bullish momentum building. The recent weekly candle has posted a strong green body, suggesting renewed interest in the altcoin segment. Volume has also picked up, showing growing confidence among participants as many altcoins recover from deeply oversold conditions.

Technically, this bounce could signal the beginning of a new macro leg higher, especially if the 50-week SMA is reclaimed and price holds above $900 billion. The overall structure remains constructive, with higher lows forming since late 2022 and price compressing into a potential breakout formation. The current setup is promising, but confirmation will depend on whether this rally can break above critical levels and sustain higher prices.