Altcoins Face Major Token Unlocks by 2025, Impacting Market Dynamics

While the overall crypto market is experiencing fluctuations due to macroeconomic events and sector-wide re-pricing, a significant development is often overlooked: many altcoins are set to unlock the majority of their tokens by the end of 2025. This pivotal narrative, however, has not garnered the attention it deserves.

Historically, token unlocks have been associated with price risks as the locked supply gradually enters the market. In contrast, the near-complete unlocking of certain tokens eliminates this persistent overhang. This shift has substantial implications, as Fully Diluted Valuations (FDVs) often overshadow market caps, making it difficult to discern genuine supply-demand dynamics.

With only a few months left until full circulation for many major altcoins, traders and investors might be overlooking an important inflection point. These projects will soon clear away supply-side uncertainty, likely making the pricing in these markets cleaner and organic demand more apparent.

Several altcoins have already circulated more than 95% of their total token supply, with the remaining portion set to unlock well before 2025. Here are some key players in this area:

Biconomy ($BICO) is a protocol simplifying Web3 interactions. It is in the final phase of its token distribution journey, with only 4% of its total supply left to unlock. This supply is earmarked for the community, making the event relatively low-risk. Dodo (DODO), a decentralized exchange using Proactive Market Making (PMM), has only 5% of its supply remaining to be unlocked. The community-targeted allocation will help soften the impact when it unlocks.

Gelato ($GEL), a Web3 automation layer, has just 3% of its tokens left to unlock. The tokens going to the team and foundation might introduce more risk, but the relatively small FDV limits the downside. Cartesi ($CTSI), which enables scaling smart contracts based on Linux, has 3% of its tokens left to unlock, set to go into reserves, suggesting low immediate risk.

VVS Finance ($VVS) is one of the higher-FDV projects on this list. Its team allocation is worth monitoring, as team unlocks can create sell pressure. However, much of the supply is already in circulation, which helps balance concerns. Coin98 ($C98) has 5% of its tokens left to unlock, divided among the community, treasury, and teams. The impact will depend on how these groups manage their tokens, but with just 5% left to unlock, the worst is clearly over.

1inch (1INCH) is the farthest from full circulation on this list, with 8% of the supply still locked and destined for insiders. This could create more volatility, especially considering its larger FDV and investor allocation. However, the unlock horizon isn’t long, and the worst might already be priced in.

Despite the market being caught up in macro narratives and the meme coin frenzy, the upcoming full unlocks in a few select digital assets present an opportunity for investors who are aware of the real story. Unlike typical initial coin offerings (ICOs), where tokens are doled out in stages, the day after defined unlock periods end, projects with fully circulating supplies and low FDVs may reemerge as favorites among allocators. The problem is that allocators never seem to talk about them until the market is aware they have been unlocked, prompting the question: Is the market aware of what it has anyway?

As of now, the clock appears to be ticking, and the opportunity to front-run the entire supply realization may be coming to an end. This development underscores the importance of staying informed about token unlocks and their potential impact on the market. As more altcoins approach full circulation, investors and traders should be prepared for potential shifts in supply-demand dynamics and pricing.