Altcoin Season Unlikely as Market Drops 76%

The broader crypto market's continued bearish performance has significantly diminished the likelihood of an Altcoin Season occurring in the current cycle, with most altcoins experiencing sharp declines. Despite the substantial decrease in the alt market, analysts still anticipate further declines in the coming months.

Bitcoin's strength has pushed altcoins into bearish territory. A crypto expert and trader, Mags, outlined the potential journey for altcoins as the market struggles to regain upside momentum. Mags highlighted two crucial zones in the Altcoin Season Index to gauge the market's status: above 75, which identifies an Altseason, and below 25, representing a Bitcoin Season. The index has fallen to 24, indicating that the market is in a Bitcoin season. This index has been dropping since it reached its peak on December 7, 2024, and altcoins have been witnessing substantial corrections.

With the index displaying a Bitcoin season, Mags predicted that altcoins are likely to continue declining for the time being. However, he expects the index to push back toward the upward direction, changing the course of the alt markets. This is because each time the index dips below 25, it spends a few weeks or months there before bottoming out and surging up over 75, for an Altcoin Season, considering past trends.

Past data shows that the index has moved into a Bitcoin season 7 out of 9 times, particularly between Q2 and Q3. When the index rises, data reveals that it usually reaches a peak in just a few months. In the meantime, the index will remain below 25 before turning around. As it trends downward, buying the dips rather than attempting to time the bottom precisely is usually the best approach because every bounce is V-shaped and swift.

Mags stresses the importance of accumulating alts in the next few weeks or months as the assets present a steep discount. His strategy is backed by an impending strong up and the 4-year cycle rally, which may be the final leg-up before the market becomes bearish if history repeats itself.

Key developments on the alt market are suggesting a turnaround from bearish to bullish. Once the market shifts toward the upside, a crypto analyst, Captain Faibik, believes that a massive altcoins bull rally could be on the horizon. The much-anticipated rally might be closer than it seems due to a lengthy Rising Wedge formation on the BTC.D chart in the weekly time frame. Captain Faibik expects an altseason to begin once a breakdown from the pattern occurs.