Altcoin Season Index Drops to 26 as Bitcoin Dominance Rises

The Altcoin Season Index has dipped to 26, indicating a period of Bitcoin dominance in the cryptocurrency market. This index, which measures the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin, suggests that while Bitcoin is currently the dominant force, there is still potential for altcoins to make a comeback.

Despite the overall cryptocurrency markets experiencing a slight rebound, it was altcoins that led the charge, sparking speculation about a potential sell-off. However, the data showed a different picture. Exchange inflows for altcoins remained subdued, with major platforms like Binance, Coinbase, OKX, and Bybit seeing inflows barely crossing 30,000. This is significantly lower than the peaks seen during past corrections in March and December 2024, indicating a change in trader behavior. Instead of selling off, traders may be moving towards decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and stablecoin swaps into USDC and USDT.

The muted exchange inflows signal calm amid volatility, suggesting that holders are not scrambling to sell their positions. This indicates fewer panics and a potential for longer-term buying. The Fear and Greed Index at 52 shows that sentiment has reset to neutral following the severe flush that took most cryptos into the red. This neutral level is neither an indication of excessive greed nor fear but rather a sign of cautious optimism. The recent volatility and liquidation-driven declines have led to a reset of the markets, with panic subsiding and clean-up efforts being made.

Looking into the Altcoin Season Index, the metric declined back to 26 after being in the 30s previously. This indicates that Bitcoin still dominates recent volatility, but altcoins are not entirely sidelined—some signs of recovery have emerged. If the index crosses above 50, it would confirm a stronger altcoin trend. For now, the scale tips toward Bitcoin, but the dynamic could shift quickly.

Comparing the Altcoin Season of 2021 and 2025, there are striking similarities. Both years saw a “double fakeout” slightly below the 1-month moving average, followed by a powerful recovery. In 2021, this led to a multi-month altcoin rally. In 2025, two sharp wicks beneath $180 billion have been followed by recoveries. The structure is in place, but execution depends on what comes next. A sustained move toward $270 billion in market cap is key to validating the alt season breakout structure. However, the inability to stay above the moving average may reject the move. The configuration is in place, although it needs more support and utility-based flows to affirm it.