Altcoin Season Fails to Materialize Amid Market Shifts

The concept of an “altcoin season” in the cryptocurrency world has long been a topic of debate. Traditionally, this term refers to a brief period, usually lasting 2-3 months, following a Bitcoin (BTC) price rally, where altcoins outperform BTC in cumulative returns. This pattern was observed in the 2015-2018 and 2019-2022 cycles. However, the current bull market has yet to see a clear altcoin season.

The Blockchain Center defines an altcoin season as a period when 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a rolling 90-day timeframe. Its Altseason Index showed upticks in March 2024 and again in January 2025, but neither lasted long enough to qualify as a full-fledged altseason.

Several factors have been cited for the lack of a clear altcoin season. Some analysts argue that memecoins have drained liquidity from the broader altcoin market. Others point to the oversaturation of crypto investment products, particularly ETFs, which cater to institutions and spotlight only the largest altcoins. A third explanation suggests a deeper rethink of what altcoins actually are, viewing them not as a unified asset class but as a diverse collection of crypto assets with different functions, value structures, and growth potential.

Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher attributes the lack of a major altcoin season to the launch of Pump.fun, which redirected speculative capital from top 200 assets to onchain low caps. This led to significant wealth destruction for late retail investors, who lost money on illiquid onchain memecoins.

Political events in the United States also played a role. President Donald Trump’s public embrace of memecoins sparked initial momentum, but the subsequent drop in TRUMP and MELANIA tokens disappointed retail investors.

The arrival of institutional investors and the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 brought significant inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT becoming a dominant vehicle. Some analysts believe that the safety and scalability of spot BTC ETFs sucked capital away from speculative assets. However, crypto is not a zero-sum market, and institutional demand could expand the total crypto pie.

Altcoins have evolved beyond their initial definition, encompassing a wide range of assets with distinct functions and investor profiles. This diversity is reflected in their price action, with major altcoin categories diverging sharply this cycle. Real-world asset (RWA) tokens surged 15x, while GameFi lost half its market cap. This shows that narratives play a growing role in driving investors’ capital allocation decisions.

Core blockchain tokens have also started to specialize. Ethereum remains the hub for DeFi, Solana dominates memecoins, Tron holds second place in stablecoin transfers, and ImmutableX is carving out its territory in the gaming space. Token performance is increasingly tied to ecosystem activity, suggesting that the term “altseason” may no longer be relevant. Altcoins are not moving as a pack anymore, indicating the maturation of the crypto market.