Altcoin Analyst Warns 90% Face 99% Decline by 2026

An on-chain analyst has raised concerns about the future of altcoins, predicting that 90% of them could face a 99% decline by 2026. This forecast is based on historical data and the analyst's observation of current market trends. The analyst believes that the altcoin season, which typically starts around June or July, could be a trap for retail investors who might jump in just before a significant crash.

The analyst has outlined a strategy to avoid potential losses, planning to sell all his cryptocurrency holdings by August 2025. He advises investors to watch key metrics such as MVRV (market value vs. realized value), NUPL (net unrealized profit/loss), and SOPR (spent output profit ratio) to spot market tops early. These indicators, according to the analyst, flashed red weeks before the crashes in 2017 and 2021, suggesting that selling while most people still believe prices will keep rising could be a prudent strategy.

The analyst also emphasizes the importance of diversifying into safer assets like yield-generating investments and real-world assets (RWA) to avoid the risk of holding onto crypto profits for too long. He warns against the temptation of jumping back into the market for "one last pump," advising the use of cold wallets for serious holdings and burner wallets for risky plays. The analyst's strategy includes exiting the market before FOMO (fear of missing out) hits and being ready to sell even when it feels tough.

The delay in the altcoin season this year, compared to previous bull runs in 2017 and 2021, is noted by the analyst. Bitcoin has been hovering near its all-time high for months, indicating that the real breakout could still be coming. Some traders point out that past altcoin seasons have coincided with low-interest rates, which encourage risk-taking and fuel investment in altcoins. Without rate cuts, the necessary conditions for a significant altcoin run may not be present.

The analyst's warning underscores the volatility and uncertainty inherent in the cryptocurrency market. While some altcoins have seen substantial gains, the market is also prone to sharp declines. Investors are advised to approach the market with caution, conduct thorough research, and consider diversification to mitigate risks. The analyst's prediction serves as a reminder of the importance of a long-term perspective and adaptability in navigating the ever-changing cryptocurrency landscape.