Alphabet's Options Signal $340 Bullish Play Amid Legal Risks and AI Rivalry

• GOOG trades at $312.015, down 0.54% from $313.70, with a bearish engulfing pattern and long-term bullish MA crossovers.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $340 and $320, while puts at $285 and $290 hint at downside caution.
• Analysts upgraded price targets to $365, but Disney’s legal action and OpenAI’s GPT-5.2 pose near-term headwinds.

The stock is caught in a tug-of-war: short-term bearish momentum clashes with long-term AI-driven optimism. Here’s how to navigate it.Bullish Bets and Bearish Guards in the Options Chain

Let’s start with the numbers. This Friday’s options chain is packed with 13,038 open interest at the $340 call strike—nearly double the next highest call. That’s a big bet someone thinks GOOG will break through $340 before expiration. Meanwhile, the $285 put has 10,186 open interest, suggesting institutional players are hedging against a drop below $285. The put/call ratio of 0.7589 (calls dominate) leans bullish, but don’t ignore the 7,660 puts at $290 for next Friday.

Block trades add intrigue. A 800-lot buy of the GOOG20250919C245 call (expiring in September) and a 800-lot trade in the GOOG20251003C250 call signal big money is positioning for a rebound. These aren’t random bets—they’re strategic. If GOOG holds above $307.54 (middle Bollinger Band), the $320–$340 call strikes could see action. But if it breaks below $300, the $290 put becomes a critical line in the sand.

News That Could Flip the Script

Alphabet’s recent antitrust win and $3.8T market cap are bullish, but the Disney cease-and-desist letter and OpenAI’s GPT-5.2 launch complicate things. The legal dispute could disrupt ad partnerships, while OpenAI’s AI edge might pressure Google’s cloud growth. Yet, analysts like Piper Sandler ($365 target) and Citizens ($340) still see long-term upside. The key question: Will the market prioritize AI optimism or short-term risks?

Actionable Trades for Today

1. Options Play: Buy the GOOG20251219C320 call (next Friday’s $320 strike) if GOOG breaks above $314.50. The RSI at 65.79 suggests overbought territory, but the 30D MA at $299.88 is a strong support. Target $325–$340 if the stock holds above $307.54.
2. Stock Play: Enter near $307.54 (middle Bollinger Band) with a stop-loss at $300. If it holds, aim for $325. If it breaks below $300, consider the GOOG20251219P290 put for downside protection.
3. Bearish Alternative: Short the GOOG20251219P285 put if GOOG dips below $307.54. The 200D MA at $164.28 is a long-term floor, but short-term volatility could test $290.

Volatility on the Horizon

Alphabet’s story isn’t just about AI or legal drama—it’s about balance. The options market is pricing in a $340 ceiling and $285 floor, but the stock’s path will depend on how investors weigh these factors. If the $320 call strikes expire worthless, the bearish engulfing pattern could dominate. But if the $340 call sees action, the long-term bullish MA crossovers might reignite the rally. Either way, the next 7 days will be pivotal. Stay close to the $307.54 level—it’s the emotional hinge of this trade.