Alphabet (GOOG) Options Signal Bullish Momentum: Target $340 Calls as EU Risks Loom

• GOOG trades at $317.81, up 1.07% with volume surging to 8.8M shares.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $340 and $345 strikes, while puts cluster at $285.
• Analysts remain bullish on AI/cloud growth, but EU antitrust probes add near-term uncertainty.

Here’s the takeaway: GOOG’s options market is pricing in a strong upside bias, with institutional block trades and technicals pointing to a potential breakout above $340—but regulatory risks could create volatility traps.

Bullish Sentiment in Options: Calls at $340 Dominate, Puts at $285 Provide Cushion

The options chain tells a clear story. For this Friday’s expiration (Dec 12), the GOOG20251212C340 call has 17,913 open contracts—the highest of any strike. That’s not just noise: it’s a vote of confidence from institutional players who expect a push toward $345. The next tier includes $345 calls (7,405 OI) and $320/325 calls, suggesting a broad base of bullish positioning.

On the downside, the GOOG20251212P285 put leads with 10,254 open contracts. While that’s a bearish signal, it also acts as a floor: if GOOG dips below $312.62 (today’s intraday low), those puts could catch a rebound. The put/call ratio of 0.74 (calls dominate) reinforces the bias, but don’t ignore the risk—three EU-related antitrust probes could force a pullback.

Block trades add intrigue. A 800-lot buy of GOOG20250919C245 and multiple large call trades (e.g., GOOG20251003C250) suggest big players are hedging long-term AI/cloud bets. These aren’t random moves—they’re strategic.

News Flow: Regulatory Headwinds vs. Analyst Optimism

The EU’s antitrust probe into Google’s AI training practices is a wildcard. If regulators find violations, fines could hit 10% of revenue—a drag on earnings. But analysts aren’t panicking. Eighty-four percent of recent ratings are “Buy,” with a $302.4 average target. Pivotal Research even raised its target to $400, citing Google Cloud’s momentum and Gemini AI’s enterprise potential.

Meanwhile, product launches like AI glasses (2026) and space-based data centers (2027) are fueling long-term optimism. Retail investors might be buying calls to hedge against short-term regulatory noise while betting on these innovations.

Actionable Trades: Calls at $340, Stock Breakout Setup

For options traders:

• GOOG20251212C340 (Dec 12 expiry): Buy if GOOG closes above $318.70 (today’s high). Target $345 for 7.5% gains. Stop below $312.62.
• GOOG20251219C335 (Dec 19 expiry): A cheaper alternative if you want to extend the timeline. Use this if GOOG consolidates near $317.50.

For stock:

• Entry near $318.70 if GOOG breaks above its 30D support/resistance range (283.89–284.99). Target $336.79 (upper Bollinger Band).
• Bear put spread: Buy GOOG20251212P295 and sell GOOG20251212P285 if GOOG dips below $312.62. Caps risk while hedging against EU-driven selloffs.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Regulatory Realities

GOOG’s story is a tug-of-war between AI optimism and regulatory scrutiny. The options market is pricing in a $340+ move, but EU probes could create sharp pullbacks. My read? Go long with calls but keep a tight stop. If GOOG holds above $312.62, the bulls have a clear path. If not, the puts at $285 could offer a safety net. Either way, this is a stock where patience and discipline will pay off—just don’t let the headlines blind you to the bigger picture.