Alphabet (GOOG) Options Signal Bullish Momentum: Key Strike Levels and Trade Setups for Dec 12 Expiry

• Current price: $318.36 (up 0.19% from $317.75)
• Put/Call OI ratio: 0.75 (calls dominate, especially at $340 strike)
• Block trades: $1.1M in $235 calls (Sep expiry) and $503K in $250 calls (Oct expiry)

Here’s the thing: GOOG’s options market is whispering bullishness, but technicals hint at a short-term wobble. Let’s break it down.

Options Imbalance and Whale Moves: A Bullish Playbook

This Friday’s options chain shows heavy call open interest at $340 (OI: 17,244) and $320 (OI: 7,418), while puts peak at $285 (OI: 10,211). That’s a classic setup: big money is hedging downside risk but leaning hard on upside potential. The MACD histogram (-0.61) suggests near-term bearish pressure, but the RSI at 71.69 warns we’re in overbought territory. Think of it like a coiled spring—could snap higher, or pull back to test support.

Block trades add intrigue. A $1.1M buy of $235 calls (GOOG20250919C235) and $503K in $250 calls (GOOG20251003C250) hint at long-term bullish positioning. These older expiries ($235 expires Sep 19) suggest whales are stacking cheap premium ahead of key AI product cycles.

News-Driven Narrative: Growth vs. Regulatory Crosswinds

Google’s EU troubles could be a headwind, but the $462M Fervo Energy bet and India’s AI Plus launch tell a different story. The EU’s 10% fine threat is real, but the stock’s 200D MA at $207.84 shows it’s shrugged off bigger storms before. Retail investors love the AI narrative—Gemini’s outpacing ChatGPT growth is fuel for the fire. That said, OpenAI’s pivot to hardware and naming Apple as a rival adds noise to the sector.

Actionable Trade Setups: Calls, Breakouts, and Strategic Stops

For options: Target the GOOG20251212C320 call (this Friday’s $320 strike). With OI at 7,418 and the stock trading near $318, a break above today’s high ($319.52) could trigger a rush to these strikes. If you want time, the GOOG20251219C335 call (next Friday) offers a safer entry, with Bollinger Bands suggesting a potential run to $338.16.

For stock: Consider entry near $315.40 (today’s low) if support holds. First target: $325 (RSI needs a cooldown), then $337.50 (where 6,959 calls await). Stop below $304.77 (middle Bollinger Band) to protect against a surprise regulatory hit.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Optimism and Caution

GOOG’s story is a tug-of-war between AI-driven optimism and regulatory friction. The options market is pricing in a 3–4% move by Dec 12, but the 200D MA ($207.84) remains a floor. If the EU probe escalates, watch the $285 put (OI: 10,211) for a potential safety net. For now, the path of least resistance is up—but don’t ignore the puts. This isn’t a one-way bet; it’s a high-stakes chess game.