Alphabet (GOOG) Options Signal Bullish Breakout: Target $350+ with Caution on $315 Support

• GOOG surges 2.1% to $339.78, breaking above 30D support/resistance at $314.70
• Call open interest dominates (1.05M vs. 848K puts), with heavy OI at $350 and $360 strikes
• Q4 revenue beat, AI-driven cloud growth, and $2.5B acquisition fuel optimism

The market is pricing in a breakout. Options data and technicals align on a bullish bias, but regulatory risks and overbought RSI (85.74) demand caution. Here’s how to navigate the setup.Bullish Sentiment Locked in at $350–$360

Options market participants are heavily loading up on out-of-the-money calls expiring this Friday (Jan 16). The $350 strike has 27,305 open interest—nearly double the next highest at $360 (13,806). This isn’t just noise: it’s a vote of confidence that GOOG will clear $350 before expiration. The next Friday chain (Jan 23) shows similar concentration at $350 (2,513 OI), suggesting the bullish conviction isn’t fading.

But here’s the catch: the put/call ratio (0.808) isn’t screaming for a short squeeze. Puts at $327.50 (10,454 OI) and $315 (4,670 OI) for next Friday hint some hedgers are bracing for a pullback. No major block trades today, so no whale moves to worry about—yet.

News Flow: AI Wins vs. Governance Risks

Alphabet’s Q4 beat and AI-driven cloud growth are the obvious tailwinds. The $2.5B NeuralCore acquisition and $1B DoD contract validate its AI ambitions. But the CFO resignation and antitrust lawsuit? Those are speed bumps, not dealbreakers. Retail traders are betting the AI narrative overshadows governance risks—so far, they’re right. The stock’s 8% surge on Jan 12 after the earnings beat proves it.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Breakout, Puts for the Safety Net

• For the bullish play: Buy GOOG20260116C350 (Jan 16 $350 call). If GOOG closes above $341.17 (intraday high) by Friday, this strike could see 30%+ gains. Exit at $345 if the move stalls.
• For the stock play: Enter near $334.35 (intraday low) with a target at $345. Stop-loss below $314 (30D support) to protect against a breakdown.
• For the hedge: Buy GOOG20260123P327.5 (Jan 23 $327.50 put) if GOOG dips to $330–$332. It’s a cheaper insurance policy than the $315 puts.

Volatility on the Horizon

This isn’t a straight-line trade. The RSI at 85.74 suggests a pullback is due, and the Bollinger Bands show the price is near the upper edge of its range. But the 30D and 200D moving averages ($315.84 and $223.83) are still far below current levels, giving bulls room to run. If GOOG holds $315, the long-term trend remains intact. If it breaks below $314, watch for a retest of the $298 lower band.

Bottom line: The options market and fundamentals are in sync for a $350+ move. But don’t ignore the risks. Lock in profits if the stock hits $345, and keep a close eye on the CFO audit and DOJ case. This is a high-conviction trade with clear entry/exit points—execute with discipline.