Alphabet (GOOG) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Target $340 as Call Open Interest Surges and AI Momentum Builds

• GOOG trades at $319.1 (up 0.42%) amid a short-term bearish Kline pattern but long-term bullish moving averages.

• Call open interest dominates, with 17,244 contracts at the $340 strike (this Friday’s expiry) and block trades hinting at institutional bullishness.

• Q3 earnings beat, Gemini 3 AI launch, and EU antitrust risks create a mixed but action-biased narrative for traders.

The core insight? Options data and technicals point to a high-probability upside breakout above $319.52, with risks emerging if support at $304.77 (Bollinger Middle Band) fails.Bullish Sentiment Locked in OTM Calls and Whale Moves

Call open interest is concentrated at $340 (17,244 contracts) and $320 (7,418) for this Friday’s expiry, while next Friday’s chain sees heavy interest at $335 (8,122). This suggests traders are pricing in a sharp move above current levels—likely driven by the $319.52 intraday high. The put/call ratio of 0.74 (put open interest: 855K vs. call: 1.15M) reinforces a net bullish bias.

Block trades add intrigue: A 800-lot buy of the GOOG20250919C245 call and multiple large call purchases in October 2025 expiries signal institutional positioning for a mid-term rally. However, the $285 put (10,211 OI) acts as a psychological floor—break below $300, and volatility could spike.

News Flow: AI Wins vs. Regulatory Headwinds

Alphabet’s AI momentum—Gemini 3 outperforming ChatGPT, $462M green energy bets, and Q3 earnings beating by 25%—fuels long-term optimism. But EU probes into AI data practices and India’s royalty proposals add near-term uncertainty. The market seems to have priced in the earnings beat and AI hype, yet options activity suggests traders are hedging against regulatory outcomes.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Breakouts, Stock for Precision Entries

For options:

• GOOG20251212C340 (this Friday’s $340 call): Buy if GOOG closes above $319.52. Target $340 breakeven; maximum reward if the stock gaps up.
• GOOG20251219C335 (next Friday’s $335 call): A safer play if the $319.52 level holds.

For stock:

• Entry near $316.62 (today’s open) if the $304.77 Bollinger Middle Band holds. Target $340 (Bollinger Upper Band) as a 6.5% upside.
• Stop-loss below $300 (lower Bollinger Band) to protect against a breakdown in sentiment.

Volatility on the Horizon

Alphabet’s options market is a tug-of-war between AI optimism and regulatory caution. The coming weeks will test whether Gemini’s momentum can outpace EU fines and royalty costs. Traders with a bullish bias should focus on the $340 call strikes and $319.52 price level—break above that, and the long-term bullish moving averages (30D: $296.84, 200D: $207.84) could propel GOOG toward $350. But don’t ignore the puts: A sudden shift in sentiment could see the $285 strike (10,211 OI) become a magnet for panic.

Bottom line? This is a stock at a crossroads—AI-driven growth vs. regulatory friction. The options data leans bullish, but the path isn’t without potholes. Stay nimble, and let the $340 calls and $319.52 level guide your next move.