Alphabet (GOOG) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Trade Setups for Jan 16 Expiry

• Current price: $335.14, down 0.38% from previous close but holding above 30D support at $315.71.
• Options data: Call open interest (1.08M) outpaces puts (885K), with heavy call OI at $340–$360 strikes.
• Technical setup: RSI near overbought 86.15, MACD histogram rising, and price near Bollinger Bands upper boundary.

Here’s the takeaway: GOOG shows upside potential with a short-term bullish bias, but overbought conditions and a looming earnings report (Jan 23) mean volatility could spike. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Sentiment in Options, But Caution at Key Levels

The options market is clearly leaning bullish. For this Friday’s expiry (Jan 16), the top call open interest is at the $350 strike (25,645 contracts), followed by $340 (14,380) and $360 (14,019). That’s a tight cluster of strikes above current price, suggesting traders expect a rally. But here’s the catch: the $340 strike is just 1.2% above today’s price. If GOOG fails to break through that level, the heavy call OI could create a wall of profit-taking, triggering a pullback.

On the put side, the largest open interest is at $320 (14,991 contracts) and $315 (4,837 for next Friday). That’s a 4.5% downside cushion, but the put/call ratio of 0.82 means bears aren’t in control. Still, the block trade of 600 puts at $300 (expiring April 17) hints some big players are hedging against a deeper correction later in the year.

News Flow: AI Momentum vs. Monetization Risks

Alphabet’s AI-driven commerce tools and partnerships with Apple, Shopify, and Walmart are fueling investor optimism. The Universal Commerce Protocol and Gemini 3’s performance are real growth levers. But the recent news about ads on the Gemini chatbot has caused a 2% dip—proof that monetizing AI isn’t without risks. Traders are betting the positives outweigh the negatives for now, but keep an eye on user sentiment if ads dilute the product’s appeal.

Actionable Trade Ideas for Today

For options traders, the most attractive setup is buying the GOOG20260116C340 call options (expiring Friday). Why? The $340 strike is a key psychological level with heavy OI, and a break above $336.19 (today’s high) could trigger a cascade of longs. If you’re bearish, the GOOG20260123P327.5 puts (1,053 contracts) offer a safer play, given the 200D support zone ($313.65–$317.45) is close.

For stock traders, consider entering near $331.14 (today’s low) if the price holds above the 30D support at $315.71. A breakout above $336.19 could target $340–$345, but a drop below $331.14 would signal a test of the 200D support. Use tight stops just below $330 to protect against a surprise earnings miss.

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 10 days will be critical. If GOOG holds above $331.14 and the Q4 earnings beat estimates (analysts expect $2.59 EPS), the $340–$350 calls could explode. But if the ad monetization fears resurface or the RSI cracks 80, the $320–$315 puts might see action. Either way, the options market is pricing in a directional move—just pick your side before the storm hits.