Alphabet (GOOG) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Trade Setups for Dec 5 Expiry

• GOOG trades at $317.30, down 1% intraday, but technicals show short-term and long-term bullish trends.
• Options market favors calls: Put/Call OI ratio at 0.74, with heavy call OI at $325–$340 strikes.
• Block trades in September/October hint at institutional interest in call options.
• Mixed news: Buffett’s $4.3B stake and AI wins vs. antitrust risks and Pichai’s stock sale.

The stock’s technicals and options flow suggest a high probability of a short-term rebound, but risks linger below key support.Bullish Pressure in Options, But Watch for Overbought Risks

The options market is clearly leaning bullish. For Friday’s expiry (Dec 5), call open interest spikes at $325 (8,069 contracts), $330 (7,500), and $337.5 (7,349), while puts peak at $315 (8,642). This suggests traders are pricing in a potential rebound above $320, but the RSI at 71.16 warns of overbought conditions. The put/call ratio of 0.74 (call-heavy) reinforces this bias, though heavy put OI at $285–$315 for next Friday’s expiry (Dec 12) hints at cautious positioning for a deeper pullback.

Block trades add intrigue. A $1.14M purchase of GOOG20250919C235 and $467K buy of GOOG20250919C245 in September/October suggest institutional players were accumulating calls at lower strikes. While these expirations are now distant, they signal prior confidence in GOOG’s upside. Today’s heavy call OI at $325–$340 could mean similar players are hedging or scaling up.

News Flow: AI Wins vs. Regulatory Headwinds

Alphabet’s AI momentum is undeniable. Gemini 3’s launch, TPU chip deals with Anthropic, and Buffett’s $4.3B stake all point to a company capturing market imagination. Yet, the antitrust case targeting Google’s ad-tech monopolies and Pichai’s $9.6M stock sale introduce friction. The market’s reaction to these stories is mixed: Q3 cloud revenue grew 34%, but analysts are downgrading shares due to valuation concerns (30x forward P/E). For now, the bullish narrative dominates, but regulatory outcomes could shift sentiment quickly.

Actionable Trade Setups: Calls for Friday, Stock for Breakouts

• Options Play (Dec 5 Expiry): Buy GOOG20251205C325 or GOOG20251205C330. These strikes align with heavy OI and the 30D support/resistance range (283.8–285.2). A close above $325 would validate bullish momentum, while a break below $315 (current intraday low) could trigger panic selling.
• Stock Play: Enter long near $317.30 if price holds above the 30D moving average (288.98). Target $325–$330 if the 20D EMA (not shown) crosses above the 50D line. Stop-loss below $315 to protect against a breakdown.
• Bearish Hedge (Dec 12 Expiry): Buy GOOG20251212P285 if the stock dips below $315. This strike has 8,183 OI and aligns with the 200D support (164.29–167.83), offering downside protection if the rally falters.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Regulatory Risks

Alphabet’s stock is caught between AI-driven optimism and regulatory uncertainty. The options market is pricing in a near-term rebound, but the path isn’t without hazards. A break above $325 could reignite the 340–345 call OI cluster, while a test of $315 support might force a reevaluation of the bullish case. Traders should monitor the antitrust case developments and Q4 earnings (if near-term) for catalysts. For now, the data leans toward a short-term bullish setup—but don’t ignore the risks below key levels.