Alphabet (GOOG) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Trade Setups for Dec 12–19 Expirations

• Alphabet (GOOG) trades at $317.55, down 0.06% but clinging to a long-term bullish trend.
• Options market shows heavy call open interest at $340 and $320 strikes, with a put/call ratio of 0.745 (calls dominate).
• Block trades in deep-out-of-the-money calls hint at strategic positioning for a potential breakout.

Here’s the core insight: GOOG’s options activity and technicals point to upside potential, but traders must watch for short-term volatility. The stock is caught between a short-term bearish pullback and a long-term bullish setup, creating a high-probability trade for those who know where to look.

Bullish Pressure in Options, But Caution at Key Levels

The options market is screaming bullish. For this Friday’s expirations (Dec 12), the top call strikes at $340, $320, and $337.5 have combined open interest of 30,615 contracts. That’s not just noise—it’s a signal. Traders are betting on a push above $320, with the $340 level acting as a psychological target. Meanwhile, puts at $285 and $295 have 10,211 and 8,659 OI respectively, suggesting a fear of a sharp drop below $300.

But here’s the twist: block trades in deep OTM calls like GOOG20250919C235 and GOOG20251003C250 (with $113,680 and $503,200 in turnover) hint at institutional positioning for a longer-term move. These trades, expiring in late September and October 2025, suggest big players are hedging or betting on a post-earnings pop. The risk? If the stock fails to break above $320, those calls could become a drag on momentum.

News Flow: AI Wins vs. Regulatory Headwinds

Alphabet’s recent news is a mixed bag. The $700M antitrust settlement and EU scrutiny of Gemini AI add regulatory noise, but the launch of cheaper AI plans in India and a $462M geothermal investment show execution strength. Analysts are bullish on Gemini 3.0’s integration into Google’s ecosystem, which could drive user growth and monetization. However, OpenAI’s warnings and Elon Musk’s comments about Nvidia’s Blackwell chips introduce hardware-related risks. For now, the market seems to value Alphabet’s AI progress over regulatory concerns—hence the call-heavy options flow.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Protection

For options traders, the most attractive setup is buying the GOOG20251212C320 call (strike at $320, expiring Dec 12). With the stock hovering near $317.55, a breakout above $320 could trigger a rally toward $335, where the next wave of call OI lives. If you want a longer-term play, the GOOG20251219C335 call (Dec 19 expiration) offers leverage on a push toward the $340 level. Both strikes align with key resistance levels on the 30-day moving average ($284.99) and Bollinger Bands (upper at $338.16).

For stock traders, consider entering near $315.40 (today’s intraday low) with a stop-loss below $315. If the stock holds, target $325 as a near-term goal. A break above $320 would validate the bullish case, while a drop below $315 could test the 200-day moving average ($207.84)—a catastrophic scenario, but one the puts at $285 are priced to handle. A conservative play: a put spread at $285 and $295 to hedge against a sharp drop.

Volatility on the Horizon

Alphabet’s story is a tug-of-war between AI-driven optimism and regulatory caution. The options market is pricing in a 70%+ chance of a bullish outcome, but the RSI at 71.69 and MACD histogram (-0.61) suggest overbought conditions. Traders should treat the next few days as a test: if GOOG closes above $320 by Dec 12, the long-term bullish trend could reignite. If not, the puts at $285 might see a surge in activity. Either way, the key levels are clear—now it’s about execution.