Alphabet (GOOG) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Calls at $320 Dominate as AI and Renewable Energy Deals Fuel Optimism

• Current price: $306.25, down 1% from open but above 30D support at $285.38
• Call open interest surges at $320 strike, with 14,301 contracts outstanding this Friday
• Block trades in call options suggest institutional positioning ahead of Q4 earnings

Here’s the thing: GOOG’s options market is screaming bullish right now. Calls at $320 dominate open interest, the put/call ratio is skewed toward buyers, and block trades hint at big money moving in. But the stock’s short-term bearish trend and RSI near oversold territory mean we need to balance optimism with caution. Let’s break it down.

Where the Money Is Flowing: Calls at $320 and Block Trades Signal Conviction

The options chain tells a clear story. For this Friday’s expiration, the $320 call (GOOG20251219C320) leads with 14,301 open contracts—nearly double the next strike. Next Friday’s $320 call (GOOG20251226C320) also holds 8,023 contracts. That’s not random. It means traders are betting on a rebound above $320, likely fueled by Alphabet’s AI Overviews and renewable energy partnerships.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $290 put (GOOG20251219P290) has 7,774 open contracts, acting as a floor. If the stock breaks below $290, that could trigger a wave of stop-loss orders. The block trades—like the 800-lot call purchase at $245 (GOOG20250919C245)—add another layer. These aren’t retail traders; they’re positioning for a Q4 rally ahead of earnings.

News That Could Tip the Scales: AI and Green Energy Wins

Alphabet’s recent headlines are a goldmine for bulls. The Rajasthan solar project with ReNew Energy and the TotalEnergies PPA in Malaysia show Google isn’t just talking about sustainability—it’s scaling it. Meanwhile, Gemini’s 650M monthly users and AI Overviews’ query boost are real revenue drivers.

But here’s the catch: the Texas Permanent School Fund’s 30% stake reduction in Q2 shows even institutional believers are hedging. The market’s reaction to these news stories will depend on whether investors see them as incremental wins or just table stakes in a crowded AI race.

Trade Ideas: Calls at $320 and a Bull Put Spread for Safety

For options traders, the GOOG20251226C320 call is a no-brainer. With the stock trading at $306.25 and Bollinger Bands suggesting a retest of the $310.73 midline, a breakout above $320 could trigger a rally toward $335 (upper band at $336.21). Entry: $15–$18 per contract. Target: $25–$30 if the stock closes above $325 by Dec 26.

For stock buyers, consider entry near $285.38 if the 30D support holds. A bullish case would see the stock rebound to $315 (aligning with the 30D moving average at $301.75) by mid-December. A bear put spread using the GOOG20251226P290 and GOOG20251226P280 could hedge downside risk while capping losses.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Short-Term Headwinds

The next two weeks will test GOOG’s resolve. A breakout above $320 could validate the long-term bullish case, especially with analysts projecting a $5T market cap by 2026. But the RSI at 41 and MACD histogram turning negative mean near-term volatility is likely. Keep an eye on the $300 level—it’s both a psychological barrier and a key support/resistance point.

Bottom line: This is a stock caught between a short-term correction and a long-term AI-driven rally. The options market is pricing in optimism, but the stock’s technicals demand patience. If you’re in, play it smart. If you’re on the sidelines, the next few days could offer a golden entry—or a painful exit.