Alphabet (GOOG) Options Signal Bullish Bias at $340, Bearish Pressure at $285: Here’s How to Position for Volatility

• Alphabet C (GOOG) plunges 1.8% to $315.23, breaking below its 30-day moving average of $298.59 amid heavy options activity.
• Put/Call ratio for open interest stands at 0.75, favoring calls, with massive call OI at $340 and put OI at $285.
• Block trades hint at institutional interest in call options at $235 and $250, while EU regulatory risks loom.
• Analysts raise price targets to $365, but a looming EU fine and Waymo recall add near-term uncertainty.

Here’s the takeaway: GOOG is caught in a tug-of-war between AI-driven optimism and regulatory headwinds. The stock’s sharp drop today—despite a long-term bullish trend—has created a volatile setup. Options data leans bullish at $340 but shows bearish hedges at $285. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Calls at $340, Bearish Puts at $285: What’s the Play?

The options chain tells a story of divided sentiment. For this Friday’s expiration, calls at $340 ($340.00) dominate with 17,389 open contracts, while puts at $285 ($285.00) lead with 10,192 open contracts. This imbalance suggests traders are betting on a rebound above $340 but hedging against a drop below $285. The put/call ratio of 0.75 (calls > puts) reinforces a net bullish bias, though the MACD histogram’s negative value (-0.73) warns momentum is slowing.

Block trades add intrigue. A recent $1.14M trade in GOOG20251219C235 (expiring Dec 19) and GOOG20251219C250 hints at institutional positioning for a mid-December rebound. But don’t ignore the puts: $285 puts are heavily shorted, meaning a break below that level could trigger panic selling.

AI Hype vs. Regulatory Reality: How News Shapes the Narrative

Google’s $90B AI infrastructure push and Piper Sandler’s $365 price target are fueling bullish bets. The EU fine and Waymo recall, however, are real risks. Here’s the rub: AI optimism is baked into the price, but regulatory outcomes are binary events. If the EU fine is smaller than feared, GOOG could rally. If it’s a blockbuster penalty, the stock might test the 200-day support at $164.29—though that’s a stretch.

Investor perception is key. The U.K. education partnership and YouTube TV’s price war with Netflix are long-term positives, but they won’t offset a $10B EU fine. Traders are hedging both ways: calls for AI growth, puts for regulatory drama.

Actionable Trades: Calls at $320, Puts at $285–$315

For options traders, focus on these setups:

• Buy GOOG20251219C320 (Dec 19 $320 call) if GOOG holds above $315.23. The 30-day support at $284.86 is a critical level; a rebound here could push the stock toward $325–$340.
• Sell a put spread at $285 and $315 (e.g., GOOG20251219P285 and GOOG20251219P315) to profit from volatility without directional bias. The puts at $285 are heavily shorted, so a break below $315 could trigger a cascade.

For stock traders, consider:

• Entry near $315.23 if the stock stabilizes above its intraday low. Target $325–$328 (RSI suggests overbought conditions at 70, but momentum is still intact).
• Short-term scalping if GOOG breaks above today’s high of $321.99. A close above that could trigger a retest of the 30-day MA at $298.59.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Risk

The next 72 hours will test GOOG’s resolve. A rebound above $320 could reignite bullish momentum, especially with Bank of America’s “Buy” rating and AI infrastructure bets. But a sustained drop below $310 would validate the bearish puts at $285. The key is to stay nimble: long calls for AI optimism, short puts for regulatory hedges. Either way, this is a stock where the future hinges on execution—both in the boardroom and the options market.