Alphabet (GOOG) Options Signal $340 Bullish Battle: How to Play the AI-Driven Rebound

• GOOG plunges 1.5% to $316.10 amid Waymo recalls and EU regulatory risks
• Call open interest surges at $340 strike (17,389 contracts) vs. puts at $285 (10,192)
• Analysts raise price targets to $365 as AI infrastructure bets accelerate

Here’s the big picture: GOOG’s options market is locked in a high-stakes tug-of-war between AI optimism and regulatory headwinds. With the stock trading below its 30-day moving average and a put/call ratio of 0.75 (favoring calls), the data screams that institutional money is positioning for a rebound—but only if the $314.52 intraday low holds. Let’s break down the numbers and what they mean for your portfolio.

The $340 Call Wall and Institutional Whale Moves

The options market is painting a clear picture: bulls are stacking up at $340. That strike has 17,389 open interest contracts expiring this Friday (GOOG20251212C340), nearly double the next highest call. Meanwhile, puts at $285 (10,192 OI) and $295 (8,487 OI) suggest a floor exists if the EU fine materializes. But here’s the twist: block trades like GOOG20251212C340 and GOOG20251212C337.5 (6,923 OI) show big players are buying calls at the exact levels where the stock is trading now. This isn’t just retail hype—it’s a calculated bet that AI infrastructure spending will drive a short-term rebound.

AI News vs. Regulatory Risks: The Balancing Act

Google’s $90 billion AI push and U.K. government partnerships are fueling analyst optimism. Piper Sandler just raised its target to $365, and UBS reaffirmed a “Buy” rating. But the EU fine (potentially 10% of $385B revenue) and Waymo’s 3,067-vehicle recall are real risks. The market is pricing in a 50/50 scenario: if the EU fine is delayed or reduced, the $340 call wall could ignite a rally. If not, the $285 put wall might cap the damage. The key is watching whether the stock holds above $314.52—a break below that could trigger a test of the 200D moving average at $164.29.

Actionable Trade Ideas for Today

1. Options Play: Buy GOOG20251212C340 at $3.50 (current bid) if GOOG closes above $318 by EOD. Target: $340 strike (71% gain if stock hits $340). Stop loss: $2.50.
2. Downside Hedge: Buy GOOG20251212P285 at $6.80 if GOOG dips below $315. Protects against EU fine risks with a $285 floor.
3. Stock Entry: Consider buying GOOG at $314.52 (intraday low) with a stop at $310. Target: $320 (30D support) and $325 (next resistance).

Volatility on the Horizon

The next 72 hours will be critical. If GOOG holds above $314.52 and the EU fine news softens, the $340 call wall could become a catalyst. But if the stock breaks below $310, the $285 put wall might cap the fall—but don’t ignore the 200D MA at $164.29. For a longer-term play, consider GOOG20251219C320 (6,944 OI) if the stock bounces off $314.52. This is a high-conviction trade for AI believers who think the $90B infrastructure push will outpace regulatory noise.

Bottom line: GOOG is at a crossroads. The options data and analyst upgrades lean bullish, but the EU fine and Waymo recall add volatility. Play it smart—use the $340 call wall as a guide, but keep a tight stop. The AI story isn’t over yet.