Almonty Industries: Unlocking Value as Lock-Up Ends and Tungsten Demand Surges

In the ever-shifting landscape of global commodities, few stories are as compelling as Almonty Industries' (NASDAQ: ALM) ascent as a non-Chinese tungsten supplier. With geopolitical tensions tightening supply chains and defense budgets surging, the company's strategic positioning-and the impending expiration of a key lock-up period-could unlock significant liquidity and investor opportunities.

The Lock-Up Expiration: A Catalyst for Liquidity

Almonty's recent acquisition of the Gentung Browns Lake Tungsten Project in Montana, USA, closed on October 31, 2025, with shares issued as part of the deal subject to a one-year contractual lock-up period, as reported by a Canadian Almonty Industries acquires a tungsten project in Montana article. This means the first wave of restricted shares will become tradable by late October 2026. While the company's July 2025 Nasdaq listing did not explicitly disclose a lock-up end date for its initial public offering (IPO), the Gentung acquisition's expiration date provides a critical liquidity milestone.

Historically, lock-up expirations can introduce volatility, but in Almonty's case, the event aligns with a broader narrative of supply-side scarcity. Tungsten, a critical material for armor-piercing munitions and high-speed machining tools, faces a global deficit as China dominates 80% of processing capacity, according to a Nasdaq-Listed Almonty Industries Secures $90 Million Cash Injection report. Almonty's vertical integration at the Sangdong Mine in South Korea-now transitioning to commercial production-positions it to fill this gap, reducing reliance on Chinese processing and enhancing margins, as noted in a Almonty to Acquire Strategic U.S. Tungsten Project in Beaverhead County, Montana announcement.

Strategic Expansion in a Tightening Market

Almonty's acquisition of the Gentung project underscores its ambition to diversify its U.S. footprint. The project, expected to reach production by mid-2026, complements its existing operations in South Korea and Portugal, creating a "triangular" supply chain less vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, as the Canadian Almonty Industries acquires a tungsten project in Montana article noted. This expansion is not merely geographic but also operational: the company's third-quarter 2025 net income of $33.2 million, driven by a $34.5 million gain from warrant revaluation, as reported by the Almonty to Acquire Strategic U.S. Tungsten Project in Beaverhead County, Montana announcement, highlights its financial flexibility to fund such moves.

The timing is fortuitous. Tungsten demand is surging as the U.S. and allies seek to decouple from Chinese supply chains. According to a U.S. Geological Survey report, global tungsten consumption is projected to grow 8% annually through 2030, driven by defense and green energy applications. Almonty's ability to scale production-coupled with its Nasdaq listing, which raised $90 million in July 2025, as reported by a Almonty Industries to List on Nasdaq announcement-positions it to capitalize on this trend.

Risks and Rewards in a Volatile Sector

Investors must weigh Almonty's strategic momentum against sector-specific risks. Tungsten prices, while currently elevated, are cyclical and sensitive to macroeconomic shifts. A visual analysis of the 12-month price trend for ALM (see chart above) reveals a 45% rally post-IPO, reflecting investor optimism but also volatility. Additionally, the company's general and administrative expenses rose in Q3 2025, though net income remained robust due to non-operational gains, as noted in the Almonty to Acquire Strategic U.S. Tungsten Project in Beaverhead County, Montana announcement.

However, the impending lock-up expiration for Gentung shares could introduce short-term volatility. If institutional investors or early shareholders offload their stakes, it may temporarily dilute the stock. Yet, this risk is mitigated by Almonty's strong cash reserves ($111.6 million as of September 30, 2025, as reported in the Almonty to Acquire Strategic U.S. Tungsten Project in Beaverhead County, Montana announcement) and its focus on long-term vertical integration.

Conclusion: A Strategic Play in a Strategic Metal

Almonty Industries is more than a commodity play-it is a case study in how geopolitical tailwinds and operational discipline can create value. As the Gentung lock-up period ends in late 2026, the company's ability to scale production and maintain its margins will be pivotal. For investors, the key takeaway is clear: in a world where tungsten is as critical as lithium or cobalt, Almonty's strategic expansion and post-lock-up liquidity could unlock significant upside.