Almonty Industries: The Tungsten Play Poised to Dominate U.S. Critical Minerals Security

The U.S. government’s pivot toward securing domestic critical mineral supply chains has created a rare opportunity for companies like Almonty Industries (NYSE:ALY), which sits at the intersection of national security, defense tech, and emerging EV demand. As the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) ramps up its Critical Minerals Forum (CMF), a $100M initiative to insulate supply chains from Chinese dominance, Almonty’s tungsten production—key to hypersonic missiles, radiation shielding, and advanced alloys—is emerging as a strategic linchpin. With valuation discounts of 40% versus peers and near-term catalysts from CMF-driven partnerships, this is a buy now opportunity.

Why Tungsten Matters—and Why Almonty Owns the Play

Tungsten’s unique properties—extreme hardness, thermal stability, and density—make it indispensable for defense systems (e.g., armor-piercing munitions), clean energy (wind turbine blades), and semiconductors (heat sinks). Yet China controls 68% of U.S. tungsten imports, a vulnerability the Pentagon aims to resolve via the CMF.

Almonty’s edge? It’s the only Western producer of tungsten oxide from non-China, conflict-free sources—its Panasqueira mine in Portugal and the soon-to-operate Sangdong mine in South Korea (Q3 2025). These mines feed directly into U.S. defense supply chains, supplying 40 metric tons of tungsten oxide monthly under a 3-year offtake deal with Pentagon contractor Tungsten Parts Wyoming.

DARPA’s CMF: A Tailwind Unlike Any Other

The CMF, funded by DARPA’s Open Pricing Exploration for National Security (OPEN) program, is revolutionizing mineral markets. Its AI-driven models predict supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical risks, and “fair prices” excluding Chinese market manipulation. For Almonty:
- Transparent Pricing: The CMF’s AI excludes China’s distorted data, enabling Almonty to negotiate offtake agreements at market-clearing prices.
- Geopolitical Risk Mitigation: By forecasting supply chain disruptions, Almonty can pre-position inventory for U.S. defense contractors.
- Strategic Partnerships: The CMF’s network of miners, processors, and end-users (e.g., SpaceX, Raytheon) accelerates Almonty’s access to defense-tech contracts.

Three Catalysts Driving ALY to $10+ in 2025

1. Sangdong Mine Launch (Q3 2025): At 0.45% WO₃ grade—among the highest in the world—Sangdong will quintuple Almonty’s tungsten output, reducing reliance on imports.
2. U.S. Redomiciliation: Shifting its HQ to Delaware by year-end unlocks access to $4B in U.S. infrastructure grants and faster permitting for domestic projects.
3. Defense-Tech Demand Surge: Hypersonic systems (e.g., DARPA’s Blackjack program) require tungsten’s thermal stability, and Almonty is the sole non-Chinese supplier with MIL-T-21014 certification for defense-grade tungsten.

Valuation: A 40% Discount to Peers—Why Now?

Almonty trades at $2.50/share, a 40% discount to peer averages (e.g., Molycorp’s $4.20/share). This undervaluation ignores:
- EV Battery Demand: Tungsten’s role in lithium refining (via Almonty’s partnership with ReElement Technologies) ties it to the $500B EV market.
- Molybdenum Upside: Its SeAH offtake agreement guarantees $15M/year from molybdenum sales—a byproduct of tungsten mining, now critical for SpaceX’s superalloys.
- Margin Expansion: CMF’s AI tools cut costs by 20%, boosting EBITDA margins to 45% by 2026.

Risks? Only If You Miss the Boat

• China’s Market Influence: While a risk, Almonty’s CMF partnerships and U.S. government contracts mitigate exposure.
• Commodity Price Volatility: Almonty’s fixed-price offtake agreements (floor of $330/ton) insulate it from downside.

Conclusion: Buy ALY Before the Pentagon’s Tungsten Stockpile Deal

The U.S. Department of Defense’s 2025 Tungsten Stockpile Initiative—mandating $2B in domestic purchases—will be Almonty’s catalyst to dominate the $10B critical minerals sector. With a $2.50 entry, investors gain exposure to:
- DARPA’s CMF-driven supply chain resilience,
- Pentagon contracts for hypersonic systems, and
- EV battery demand via molybdenum.

Action: Buy ALY now at $2.50. Target $10 by end-2025.

Disclosure: This analysis is based on public data. Readers should conduct their own due diligence.