Almonty Industries Plummets 9%: What's Behind the Sudden Drop Amid Strategic Expansion?

Summary
• Almonty Industries (ALM) trades at $6.24, down 9.04% from its previous close of $6.86
• Intraday range spans $6.165 to $6.89, reflecting sharp volatility
• Sphene Capital upgrades price target to $13.50, signaling 60%+ upside potential

Almonty Industries’ stock has plunged nearly 9% in a single session, despite a strategic acquisition of a U.S. tungsten project and a bullish analyst upgrade. The stock’s intraday swing from $6.89 to $6.165 underscores intense short-term pressure. With the company positioning itself as a critical supplier in U.S. industrial supply chains, the market’s reaction raises urgent questions about execution risks, capital allocation, and the sustainability of its expansion strategy.

Montana Tungsten Acquisition Sparks Volatility
Almonty’s 9% decline follows its acquisition of the Gentung Browns Lake tungsten project in Montana, a move designed to secure U.S. supply chains for critical minerals. While Sphene Capital raised its price target to $13.50 (from $8.40), the market’s reaction suggests skepticism about execution risks. The project’s projected 2026 production timeline and reliance on capital-intensive infrastructure upgrades may have triggered profit-taking by short-term investors. Additionally, the company’s re-domiciliation to Delaware and partnerships with U.S. defense firms could face regulatory or operational hurdles, amplifying near-term uncertainty.

Mining Sector Mixed as Almonty Diverges
The broader mining sector remains fragmented, with peers like Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) showing modest gains. Almonty’s sharp decline contrasts with this trend, reflecting its unique exposure to tungsten and molybdenum markets. While gold and copper prices remain elevated, tungsten’s demand is tied to defense and aerospace sectors, where supply chain shifts are more pronounced. Almonty’s U.S. expansion aligns with geopolitical priorities but faces steeper execution risks compared to established gold or copper miners.

Technical Divergence and Options Opportunities
• RSI: 47.85 (neutral, below overbought threshold)
• MACD: -0.18 (bearish divergence, signal line at -0.19)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $6.24 (near lower band at $5.49)
• 30D MA: $6.84 (price below key support level)

Almonty’s technicals suggest a bearish bias, with RSI and MACD indicators pointing to oversold conditions. The stock is trading near its 30-day moving average ($6.84) and the lower Bollinger Band ($5.49), indicating potential for a rebound or further decline. Short-term traders should monitor the $6.165 intraday low as a critical support level. While no options data is available, a conservative approach would involve shorting volatility if the stock breaks below $6.165, or buying calls if it bounces above $6.84. The absence of leveraged ETFs complicates direct exposure, but the stock’s volatility makes it a candidate for directional bets.

Backtest Almonty Industries Stock Performance
Below is the interactive event-study report covering all –9 % (or larger) single-day drops in ALM.O since 2022. The module lets you review cumulative returns, optimal holding window, win-rate by horizon, and other statistics.Notes & methodology:1. Daily close-to-close change was computed; days with ≤ –9 % qualified as “plunge” events. 2. Three such events occurred in the sample. 3. The table in the module shows average post-event performance versus benchmark over a 30-day window. None of the horizons reached statistical significance given the small sample size. Feel free to explore the module above for detailed plots and statistics, or let me know if you’d like to adjust the plunge threshold, holding window, or add risk filters.

Critical Juncture: Watch Execution Risks and $6.165 Support
Almonty’s 9% drop highlights the market’s focus on execution risks for its U.S. expansion. While the company’s strategic positioning in tungsten and molybdenum markets is compelling, near-term success hinges on capital efficiency and regulatory alignment. Investors should watch the $6.165 support level and the $6.84 30-day moving average as key decision points. With Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) up 0.34%, the broader mining sector remains resilient, but Almonty’s unique challenges demand closer scrutiny. A breakdown below $6.165 could trigger further selling, while a rebound above $6.84 may validate the bull case.