Almonty Industries Plummets 9.18%: What's Behind the Sharp Intraday Slide?

Summary
• Almonty Industries (ALM) tumbles 9.18% to $8.455, its lowest since January 2026
• Intraday range of $8.375–$9.37 highlights volatile session
• Sector leader Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) surges 4.42%, contrasting ALM's decline
• Turnover hits 2.66M shares, 1.67% of float

Almonty Industries faces a dramatic intraday selloff amid a broader metals sector rally. The stock’s sharp drop diverges from its peers, raising questions about catalysts. With copper prices surging and global supply chain tensions intensifying, investors are dissecting whether ALM’s move reflects sector-wide pressures or company-specific concerns.

Supply Chain Jitters and Copper Volatility Spook Tungsten Miners
The selloff in Almonty Industries aligns with broader anxieties over industrial metal supply chains, amplified by recent news of Chinese antimony smuggling convictions and Goldman Sachs’ revised copper forecasts. While ALM operates in the tungsten space, the interconnected nature of base and industrial metals means tightening copper inventories and speculative fervor in commodities are spilling over. The London Metal Exchange’s record copper prices and surging open interest in base metals have created a risk-off environment for smaller miners like ALM, which lacks the scale to hedge against such macro shifts.

Basic Materials Sector Splits: FCX Soars, ALM Crumbles
Freeport-McMoRan’s 4.42% gain underscores the sector’s bifurcation. While FCX benefits from its dominant copper position and $10.98B market cap, Almonty’s $2.19B valuation and exposure to niche tungsten markets leave it vulnerable to speculative outflows. The S&P/TSX Materials Index’s 2.23% YTD gain contrasts with ALM’s 4.05% YTD underperformance, highlighting divergent investor sentiment between majors and smaller explorers.

Bearish Setup: Short-Term Volatility Plays and ETF Positioning
• RSI: 70.11 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.63 (bullish), Signal: 0.60, Histogram: 0.03
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $10.52, Middle $8.54, Lower $6.56
• 200D MA: Empty (no long-term trend)
• Support/Resistance: 30D range $8.82–$8.89

ALM’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias. The RSI’s overbought level and MACD’s narrowing histogram indicate waning momentum. Key support levels at $8.82 and $6.56 define a volatile trading range. Given the absence of options liquidity and the stock’s 6.04% intraday volatility, aggressive traders might short the stock with a stop above $8.89. ETFs like the iShares Global Materials Index ETF (MXI) could offer sector exposure, though ALM’s divergence from peers complicates this approach.

Top Options (N/A): No contracts available for analysis.

Trading Outlook: Position for a test of $6.56 support, with a 5% downside scenario projecting a $7.99 price. A break below $8.375 could trigger further selling.

Backtest Almonty Industries Stock Performance
The backtest of ALM's performance after a -9% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 44.07%, the 10-Day win rate is 52.54%, and the 30-Day win rate is 66.10%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 34.65%, with a maximum return day at 59.

ALM’s Volatility: A Short-Term Bet on Sector Divergence
Almonty Industries’ sharp decline reflects its vulnerability to macro-metal volatility and speculative outflows, despite a bullish sector backdrop. While Freeport-McMoRan’s 4.42% gain signals copper’s strength, ALM’s niche tungsten focus and smaller scale leave it exposed. Investors should monitor the $6.56 support level and sector sentiment shifts. For now, the stock’s wide intraday range and overbought RSI suggest a high-risk, high-reward trade for those betting on a short-term rebound or deeper correction.