Almonty Industries (ALM): A Strategic Buy for Tungsten Supremacy in a Geopolitical Era

In an era where critical mineral supply chains are reshaped by geopolitical tensions and national security imperatives, Almonty Industries (ALM) stands at the intersection of strategic necessity and industrial innovation. As the world grapples with the need to decouple from Chinese dominance in strategic metals, Almonty's dual-mine strategy—anchored by its Panasqueira mine in Portugal and the soon-to-launch Sangdong mine in South Korea—positions it as the linchpin of non-Chinese tungsten production. With the U.S. and its allies accelerating efforts to secure conflict-free mineral sources, Almonty's alignment with these priorities makes it a compelling investment opportunity.

Geopolitical Tailwinds: The Case for Tungsten Independence

Tungsten, a critical component in defense-grade alloys, aerospace components, and semiconductor manufacturing, has long been dominated by China, which controls over 80% of global production. However, the U.S. Department of Defense's 2025 procurement reforms—banning the use of Chinese, Russian, and North Korean tungsten in defense applications by 2027—have created an urgent demand for alternative suppliers. Almonty's 15-year offtake agreement with U.S. defense contractors, guaranteeing 90% of its Sangdong Phase I output, ensures it will supply a minimum of 40 metric tonnes of tungsten oxide monthly for U.S. military applications. This contract, coupled with a hard-floor pricing agreement with MetalTech and Tungsten Parts Wyoming, Inc., provides revenue certainty and insulates the company from market volatility.

Sangdong: The Catalyst for Explosive Growth

The Sangdong mine, one of the world's largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits outside China, is Almonty's crown jewel. With Phase I construction completed and initial production slated for H2 2025, the mine is projected to deliver 230,000 metric ton units (MTU) of tungsten annually by 2026. This output will surge further with the Phase II expansion, which could double throughput to 1.2 million tons per year by 2027. The mine's high-grade ore (averaging 0.8% tungsten) and low production costs ($120–$140/MTU) create a margin buffer that outpaces competitors.

The strategic significance of Sangdong extends beyond economics. Its proximity to U.S. allies in Asia and its alignment with the U.S. House Select Committee's mission to counter Chinese competition in critical minerals have earned Almonty bipartisan recognition. The mine's development is also supported by a $90 million Nasdaq public offering in 2025, which has fortified the company's balance sheet and accelerated its redomiciliation to Delaware—a move expected to enhance its access to U.S. capital markets and regulatory alignment.

Panasqueira: The Reliable Foundation

While Sangdong drives growth, Almonty's century-old Panasqueira mine in Portugal provides operational stability. Producing 58,000 MTU annually in 2025, the mine is set to ramp up to 124,000 MTU by 2027 through efficiency gains and selective expansion. This dual-mine strategy ensures Almonty can meet both industrial and defense demand, with Panasqueira serving as a buffer during Sangdong's ramp-up phase.

Financial and Strategic Momentum

Almonty's recent NASDAQ listing and U.S. redomiciliation have elevated its profile among institutional investors. The company's $90 million capital raise in 2025, led by a $235/MTU floor-price offtake agreement with Plansee Group and Global Tungsten & Powders, has provided the liquidity needed to fund Sangdong's Phase I operations and Phase II planning. With a projected net income of $212 million by 2027 and a P/E ratio of 8.5x (as of Q2 2025), Almonty offers a compelling risk-reward profile.

Investment Thesis: A Buy for the Long Game

Almonty's strategic positioning in a geopolitically charged market, combined with its technical and financial execution, makes it a rare “must-own” in the critical minerals sector. Key catalysts include:
1. Sangdong's H2 2025 production start, which will immediately boost revenue and EBITDA.
2. Phase II expansion approval in 2026, contingent on Phase I performance, which could double capacity by 2027.
3. U.S. procurement reforms, which will lock in demand for Almonty's conflict-free tungsten.
4. Redomiciliation to the U.S., enhancing governance and investor confidence.

With the global tungsten deficit projected to widen to 5,570 tons in 2025 and 2,330 tons in 2026, Almonty is uniquely positioned to capture 43% of non-Chinese demand by 2027. For investors seeking exposure to the critical minerals revolution, Almonty Industries represents a strategic buy—a company not just riding the wave of geopolitical tailwinds, but actively shaping the future of mineral independence.

Final Call to Action: Given Almonty's alignment with U.S. national security priorities, its robust production economics, and its near-term growth catalysts, we recommend initiating a long position in ALM at current levels, with a target price of $12.50/share by Q4 2026. The risk-reward asymmetry is compelling in a sector where supply constraints and geopolitical urgency are driving valuations higher.