Almirall's Biologics-Driven Growth: A High-Conviction Play in Medical Dermatology

The global biologics market for dermatology is undergoing a transformation, driven by the rise of targeted therapies for chronic conditions like psoriasis and atopic dermatitis. At the forefront of this shift is Almirall, a Spanish pharmaceutical company that has repositioned itself as a leader in medical dermatology through strategic R&D, commercial execution, and a deep understanding of unmet patient needs. With biologics now accounting for a significant portion of its revenue and growth trajectory, Almirall is not just capitalizing on a niche but building a fortress in a high-growth sector.

Financial Performance: A Foundation of Sustained Growth

Almirall's 2024 results underscore its transformation into a biologics powerhouse. Net sales grew by 10.2% year-on-year, with the European dermatology portfolio delivering a staggering 22.5% growth. This outperformance was fueled by two flagship biologics: Ilumetri (tildrakizumab) and Ebglyss (lebrikizumab).

• Ilumetri, approved for moderate-to-severe psoriasis, has become a cornerstone of Almirall's revenue. In 2024, it surpassed $200 million in sales and is on track to reach $300 million in peak sales. Its 200mg formulation, tailored for patients with high disease burden or obesity, has expanded its market reach and solidified its position as a top-tier therapy.
• Ebglyss, launched in Germany in late 2023, contributed $33.2 million in its first year and became the second-largest product in the atopic dermatitis (AD) segment in Germany. By H1 2025, Ebglyss generated €44.9 million in sales, a fourfold increase compared to the same period in 2024.

The company's EBITDA in 2024 rose by 10.6% to $192.6 million, reflecting disciplined cost management and pricing power. For 2025, Almirall has reiterated its guidance of 10-13% net sales growth and EBITDA of $220–240 million, with biologics expected to contribute over 70% of total revenue.

Biologics Portfolio: A Dual-Engine Growth Strategy

Almirall's success hinges on two pillars: Ilumetri's dominance in psoriasis and Ebglyss's expansion into atopic dermatitis.

Ilumetri: The Psoriasis Powerhouse

Ilumetri's 200mg formulation has been a game-changer. By offering a higher dose option, Almirall addressed a critical gap for patients who do not respond to standard therapies. In Q2 2025 alone, Ilumetri generated €58 million in sales, maintaining its 12.7% year-on-year growth. With peak sales targeting €300 million, the product is well-positioned to outperform as it faces limited competition in its class.

Ebglyss: A Best-in-Class AD Therapy

Ebglyss, an anti-IL13 monoclonal antibody, has rapidly gained traction. Its European launch in 11 countries in 2024 was followed by expansions into France, Norway, the UK, and Germany. By H1 2025, Ebglyss had become Almirall's second-largest product, with €25 million in Q2 sales. The drug's monthly maintenance dosing and three-year safety data have resonated with dermatologists, positioning it as a preferred option in a market still in its early growth phase.

Almirall and its U.S. partner, Eli Lilly, are further extending Ebglyss's potential. A Phase III trial for pediatric AD (ages 6 months to 18 years) is underway, with peak sales estimates for the biologics portfolio now exceeding €800 million annually by 2030.

R&D Momentum: Building a Long-Term Moat

Almirall's R&D investments are a testament to its ambition. In H1 2025, R&D spending rose by 27% year-on-year, accounting for 12.8% of net sales. Key initiatives include:
- Anti-IL-1RAP monoclonal antibody: Completed Phase I trials with favorable safety results, with a Phase II study in Hidradenitis suppurativa planned for 2025.
- Collaboration with Simcere: A partnership to develop multispecific antibodies for autoimmune skin diseases, leveraging China's R&D ecosystem.
- Real-world evidence (RWE) studies: The ADTrust trial, a 1200-patient study, will generate data on Ebglyss's long-term impact on patients' quality of life.

These efforts reinforce Almirall's ability to maintain a pipeline of first- or best-in-class therapies, reducing reliance on a single product and ensuring long-term revenue streams.

Strategic Positioning: A High-Conviction Play

Almirall's strategic focus on medical dermatology—a sector projected to grow at a 12% CAGR through 2030—positions it as a beneficiary of secular trends. Its biologics portfolio is not only addressing unmet needs but also leveraging superior commercial execution. For example, reimbursement for Ebglyss was secured in Spain six months ahead of schedule, showcasing Almirall's agility in navigating regulatory and payer landscapes.

The company's partnerships with dermatologists and real-world evidence generation further strengthen its market access. By aligning with the medical community, Almirall ensures its therapies are adopted quickly and integrated into treatment guidelines.

Investment Thesis: A Compelling Long-Term Opportunity

Almirall's combination of sustainable financial performance, expanding biologics leadership, and robust R&D makes it a high-conviction play. Key metrics to monitor include:
- Ebglyss's expansion: Track launches in Portugal and Ireland (planned for H2 2025) and its contribution to net sales.
- Ilumetri's durability: Assess its ability to maintain market share amid new entrants in the psoriasis space.
- R&D milestones: Progress in Phase II trials for IL-1RAP and pediatric AD could unlock significant value.

For investors, Almirall offers exposure to a high-growth sector with a clear path to differentiation. Its biologics-driven model, backed by a disciplined capital structure and a strong balance sheet, is well-suited for long-term compounding. While the stock may face short-term volatility, the company's focus on innovation and execution provides a durable foundation for value creation.

Final Verdict: Almirall is a compelling investment for those seeking a company that combines scientific leadership with operational excellence. With biologics poised to drive over €800 million in peak sales and a pipeline of next-generation therapies, the company is well-positioned to deliver sustained growth in a sector ripe for disruption.