Allstate Stock Surges 5.71% On Heavy Volume As Technicals Signal Bullish Breakout

The Allstate (ALL) closed at $203.25 on 2025-07-31, surging 5.71% with significantly elevated volume ($925.9M), suggesting strong bullish momentum breaking through key resistance levels.
Candlestick Theory
The large bullish candle on July 31st breached the $195-200 resistance zone established throughout July, signaling potential upside continuation. This follows a doji-like pattern on July 30th near the 50-day moving average, indicating indecision before the breakout. Earlier bearish engulfing patterns near the $210 peak in early June established that zone as major resistance. Key support now rests at the breakout point ($195-$197), aligning with the July swing low.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average ($196.20) slopes upward above the 100-day ($193.10) and 200-day ($188.80) averages – a bullish configuration confirming the primary uptrend. Price rebounded precisely at the 50-DMA in late July, demonstrating its dynamic support role. The golden cross (50DMA above 200DMA) formed in late April remains intact. The current price holding above all three moving averages reinforces positive trend structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover emerging on July 31st, with the histogram shifting into positive territory, supporting the breakout momentum. KDJ oscillators (typically 9-period) have the %K line (84) crossing above %D (78) from the oversold boundary, confirming renewed upward momentum despite approaching overbought territory. No bearish divergence is evident on either oscillator.
Bollinger Bands
The July consolidation caused notable band contraction (squeeze), preceding the sharp expansion on July 31st as price vaulted to the upper band ($207.08). This volatility expansion signals a strong directional move. Price closing near the upper band suggests short-term overextension potential, but not necessarily immediate reversal in strong trends.
Volume-Price Relationship
Breakout volume on July 31st was significantly higher than the 20-day average (+250%), providing strong validation for the upside move. This contrasts with the low-volume declines in mid-July (e.g., July 17th), suggesting weak conviction behind those pullbacks. Accumulation patterns are visible throughout July, where up days generally had higher volume than down days.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (approximately 68 as of July 31st) climbed sharply from mid-July levels near 45, moving towards overbought territory (>70) but not yet reaching it. The RSI has consistently respected the 40-45 zone as support during July pullbacks, forming a higher low while price tested $186 – a hidden bullish divergence suggesting underlying strength.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing from the swing low of $169.02 (2024-08-05) to the swing high of $210.18 (2025-06-18):
- Key Levels: 23.6% ($196.45), 38.2% ($191.85), 50% ($188.45)
- The July pullback found support near the 50% retracement ($188.45) and respected the 38.2% level ($191.85) repeatedly, confirming this zone's technical significance. The breakout now targets the 61.8% extension ($207.50) and potentially the prior high ($210.18).
Confluence & Conclusion
Multiple technical factors align bullish for The Allstate:
1. Strong Confluence: The breakout above $200 occurred with high-volume confirmation and bullish MACD/KDJ crossovers. Key support is reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($191.85), the 50-DMA ($196.20), and July's consolidation low – creating a robust technical floor.
2. No Significant Divergences: Momentum oscillators align with price action. While RSI approaches overbought and price is near the upper Bollinger Band, these are trend-strength signals rather than reversal warnings in the current context.
The technical structure suggests the uptrend continuation towards the $207-$210 resistance zone. Traders should monitor for consolidation near current levels given overbought signals on intraday oscillators, while respecting the newly established $197-$200 as critical support.