Allied Gold Shareholders Approve Takeover at 99.54%—Arbitrage Window Narrows to Weeks, Not Months

The immediate catalyst is in: Allied Gold shareholders overwhelmingly approved the takeover plan. At the special meeting held on March 31, 2026, 99.54% of the votes cast backed the deal with Zijin Gold. The vote was so decisive that even excluding votes from interested parties, support stood at 99.42%. This isn't just a rubber stamp; it's a near-unanimous mandate.

The market's reaction was muted, with the stock rising 0.28% to C$43.12 on the day of the vote. That slight move reflects the deal's already-elevated price, which includes a significant premium. The real story is the structural certainty it now provides.

This is an all-cash transaction valued at $5.5 billion with a key feature: it has no financing condition. Zijin Gold will fund the acquisition with its own cash, removing a major source of deal risk. With shareholder approval secured, the company's next step is a court hearing scheduled for April 2. The setup is now clear: completion is a matter of weeks, not months, as the company expects to close by late April.

The Value Proposition: Why Zijin Wants These Assets

Zijin Gold isn't paying for a story; it's paying for proven assets with a clear growth path. The strategic rationale is straightforward: Allied's operational performance and balance sheet provide a high-quality, low-risk platform for expansion.

First, the production track record is solid. Allied met its 2025 guidance, delivering 379,081 ounces of gold for the year. More importantly, it hit a quarterly high of 117,004 ounces in Q4, driven by higher grades and output. This consistency is paired with improving economics, with AISC estimated at $1,980 per ounce sold for the quarter. That efficiency provides a strong cash flow foundation.

The company's financial position adds to the appeal. Allied ended 2025 with a robust $480 million in cash. This war chest, combined with its asset base, gives Zijin a clean slate to execute its growth plans without immediate capital constraints.

Zijin's offer of C$44 per share is for specific, high-potential assets. The deal centers on Mali's Sadiola mine, which is targeting a major expansion to 400,000 ounces per year by 2029, and Ethiopia's Kurmuk project, which is expected to begin production this year. The company's 2026 guidance targets production ~55% above 2023 levels, a trajectory that includes significant output from Kurmuk. Zijin is essentially paying for a portfolio of assets that are already producing and have defined, multi-year ramp-up plans.

In essence, Zijin is acquiring a reliable cash generator with a clear roadmap for scaling output. The premium it's paying is for certainty and speed, avoiding the lengthy process of developing new mines from scratch.

The Arbitrage Setup: Price, Spread, and Remaining Risk

The numbers now define the opportunity. The stock trades at C$43.12, while the offer is a firm C$44 per share. This creates a clear discount of about 2.0% between the current price and the guaranteed payout. For an event-driven investor, that gap is the arbitrage spread.

The mechanics are straightforward. With shareholder approval secured at a near-unanimous 99.54% of votes cast and a deal that carries no financing condition, the primary risks are now procedural. The final hurdle is a court hearing scheduled for April 2, 2026, where Allied will seek a final order approving the plan of arrangement. The company expects to close by the end of May, with possible extensions.

Viewed through this lens, the setup is a classic low-risk event play. The 99.54% vote and all-cash structure remove the deal's biggest vulnerabilities. The remaining risk is minimal-essentially the chance of a regulatory delay or a procedural hiccup at the court. Given the overwhelming support and the strategic fit, that seems unlikely. The bottom line is that the arbitrage is now a near-certain event, with the remaining spread offering a clear, risk-adjusted return.