Alliant Energy’s 6% EPS Growth Hinges on Data Center Deals and Rate Moves

Date of Call: Feb 20, 2026

Financials Results

• EPS: Ongoing EPS growth of 6% for 2025, exceeding midpoint of guidance

Guidance:

• Affirmed 2026 earnings and dividend guidance.
• 2026 earnings guidance includes higher earnings from growing capital investments, expected retail sales growth of approximately 1%, higher O&M, depreciation and financing costs, and utilization of investment tax credits.
• Long-term outlook: compound annual earnings growth rate of 7%+ from 2027 to 2029.

Business Commentary:

Financial Performance and Strategic Investments:

• Alliant Energy reported a 6% ongoing EPS growth for 2025, aligning with their long-term target of 5 to 7-plus percent.
• This growth was driven by increased revenue requirements from rate base increases due to continued investments in generation and energy storage, as well as favorable temperature impacts on electric and gas sales.

Regulatory and Strategic Execution:

• The company achieved a unanimous settlement in Wisconsin's 2026, 2027 rate review and executed customer-focused investments, including 275 megawatts of energy storage and turbine upgrades.
• Regulatory execution and strategic investments were supported by proactive safe harboring of renewable and energy storage projects amid evolving tax legislation.

Data Center Growth and Economic Development:

• Alliant Energy reported 4 executed ESAs totaling 3 gigawatts of peak load, translating to a 50% future growth in demand.
• The growth is driven by data center investments that strengthen local tax bases and support economic development, with a focus on attracting customers to their service area.

Capital Investment and Resource Planning:

• The consolidated 4-year capital plan remains on track with total investments around $13.4 billion, focusing on simple cycle gas resources and renewable energy.
• The flexibility in resource planning allowed the company to reallocate investments between states and adapt to new opportunities like the QTS data center relocation.

Dividend Growth and Shareholder Returns:

• The company increased its dividend for the 22nd consecutive year and delivered a total shareholder return of over 13% for 2025.
• This outcome reflects the company's strong financial performance and ability to deliver value to shareholders amidst a dynamic economic environment.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• "2025 was defined by major shifts... We delivered another year of strong financial and operational performance... Our ongoing 2025 EPS growth of 6% exceeded the midpoint of our guidance... We are well positioned to help build a stronger, more resilient energy future..."

Q&A:

• Question from Shahriar Pourreza (Wells Fargo Securities): On the 3 gigawatts of data centers in plan, what's the minimum take agreements? If hyperscalers ramp faster, would that be accretive?
  Response: Yes, faster ramp and higher take would be accretive to planning assumptions.

• Question from Shahriar Pourreza (Wells Fargo Securities): How are conversations with hyperscalers going in Wisconsin given moratorium noise? Are you implementing stricter safeguards or shifting deals to Iowa?
  Response: Iowa has strategic advantages; Wisconsin remains open for business. The QTS DeForest project had unique local hurdles (annexation, rezoning).

• Question from Nicholas Campanella (Barclays Bank): What is required for the QTS relocation (permitting, zoning) and what's the path to construction?
  Response: Will file an Individual Customer Rate (ICR) application. The new site has land control and is zoned industrial, enabling a quick pivot.

• Question from Paul Zimbardo (Jefferies): On the 2-4 gigawatts of potential new deals, what is the timing expectation for bringing in another deal?
  Response: Timing is fluid; focus is on high-quality ESAs with clear timing, load ramp, and generation studies. Active discussions are ongoing.

• Question from Paul Fremont (Ladenburg Thalmann): Is the shift in CapEx from gas to renewables driven by QTS? What's driving the overall shift?
  Response: The shift between gas and renewables is partly due to identifying cost-effective opportunities, with a focus on quicker simple-cycle gas for capacity needs.

• Question from Andrew Weisel (Scotiabank): Do turbine reservations and safe harbor credits cover the 3 gigawatts in the plan and the 2-4 gigawatt upside?
  Response: Reservations and safe harboring cover the 3 gigawatts in the plan, but the 2-4 gigawatt upside is still in active negotiations with generation being pursued separately.

• Question from Rinny Singh (BofA Securities): How are you thinking about regulatory continuity and policy shifts around generation planning and large loads ahead of elections?
  Response: Focus is on ensuring data center growth benefits all customers, not increases costs. Commissions have supported the individual customer rate contract approach.

Contradiction Point 1

Earnings Growth Rate Baseline

Inconsistent baseline for earnings growth rate calculation.

What are your key takeaways from the recent earnings report? - Shahriar Pourreza (Wells Fargo Securities, LLC)

2025Q4: Yes, if hyperscalers ramp faster and take on more power, it would absolutely be accretive to our planning assumptions. - Lisa Barton(CEO)

Regarding the 3 gigawatt data center plans, what are the minimum take agreements, and would increased hyperscaler demand be accretive to current planning assumptions? - William Appicelli (UBS Investment Bank)

2025Q3: The **7–8% growth rate is a baseline** for the 2027–2029 period, based on known projects. - Lisa Barton(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Timing of Data Center Load Ramp

Contradiction on when significant data center load comes online.

What are your thoughts on the current market trends? - Paul Fremont (Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc.)

2025Q4: Some data center load is expected in the second half of 2026, but most will come in 2027 and beyond. - Robert Durian(CFO)

You assume 1% retail sales growth for 2026, similar to 2025. Is this a conservative assumption given data center ramp-up? - Nicholas Campanella (Barclays Bank PLC)

2025Q3: Data center load will start ramping more in the second half of 2026 (Q4) and continue to increase through **2030**, when the full **3 gigawatt contracted demand** comes online. - Robert Durian(CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

Iowa Gas Regulatory Upside

Contradiction on whether there is an upside opportunity in the Iowa gas regulatory framework.

What are your key takeaways from the recent earnings report? - Paul Fremont (Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc.)

2025Q4: In **Iowa gas**, there is **no similar upside construct**; future rate cases will be timed with capital projects to minimize regulatory lag. - Robert Durian(CFO)

What factors, including QTS relocation, are driving the shift in CapEx from gas generation to renewables? - William Appicelli (UBS Investment Bank)

2025Q3: In **Iowa electric**, the new regulatory construct provides **certainty to earn the authorized return** and includes **upside opportunity** if performance exceeds it. - Robert Durian(CFO)

Contradiction Point 4

Timeline for QTS-Cedar Rapids Load Ramp-Up

Contradiction on when major portions of the QTS-Cedar Rapids load come online.

What's your take on the recent earnings report? - Paul Fremont (Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc.)

2025Q4: Most [data center] load is expected in 2027 and beyond. - Robert Durian(CFO)

Given data center ramp-up, is the 1% retail sales growth assumption for 2026 conservative? - Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith (Jefferies)

2025Q2: [The QTS-Cedar Rapids project] will add load in stages... reaching 1,600 MW fully by 2028, with more coming in 2029. - Lisa Barton(CEO) & Robert Durian(CFO)

Contradiction Point 5

Capital Expenditure Plan Sensitivity to Load Growth

Contradiction on whether the capital plan is fixed or can be adjusted based on load growth.

What did Paul Fremont of Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. mention during the earnings call? - Paul Fremont (Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc.)

2025Q4: The overall 4-year capital plan ($13.4B for 2026-2029) is consistent. - Robert Durian(CFO)

What is driving the shift in CapEx from gas generation to renewables, including the QTS relocation? - James Kennedy (Guggenheim Partners)

2025Q1: The focus is on activities to avoid needing a reopened rate case, including... accelerating data center load growth to meet stakeholder expectations. - Robert Durian(CFO)