Alien Worlds/Tether (TLMUSDT) Market Overview: October 12, 2025

• Price declined from 0.00356 to 0.00341 amid high volatility, with a bearish trend dominating the 24-hour period.
• Key support tested near 0.00330–0.00335, with a sharp drop observed after 19:00 ET.
• Volume surged during mid-day selloff but failed to confirm strong follow-through buying.
• MACD bearish crossover and RSI near oversold territory hint at potential reversal signals.
• Bollinger Bands show wide expansion, indicating high short-term uncertainty and risk.

Alien Worlds/Tether (TLMUSDT) opened at 0.00349 on October 11, 2025 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.00341 on October 12, 2025 at 12:00 ET. The pair touched a high of 0.00360 and a low of 0.00322 during the 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to 150,931,882.0 TLM and a notional turnover of approximately $513,267. The market displayed heightened volatility, particularly after midday.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a broad bearish channel over the past 24 hours, with a notable breakdown occurring below key support at 0.00344–0.00342 around 19:00 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed between 19:15 and 19:30 ET, signaling a short-term reversal in bullish momentum. Additionally, a doji at 23:45 ET highlighted indecision near the 0.00334 support level, which was later tested again after a late-night bounce. The 0.00332–0.00334 range appears to be the next critical support zone, with a potential 0.00330–0.00335 area acting as a deeper floor.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly, indicating a continuation of downward momentum. The 50-period MA is currently at 0.00345, and the 20-period MA at 0.00347, with price below both. The daily 50/100/200 MAs show a similar bearish alignment, with the 200 MA at 0.00350 serving as a potential resistance level for any countertrend bounces.

MACD crossed below the zero line midday and remains negative, while the histogram is expanding downward. The RSI reached oversold territory (27–30) by early morning, suggesting a possible short-term bounce could occur if buyers step in. However, without a strong volume confirmation, the bearish bias remains intact.

Volatility and Volume Dynamics

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly from 19:00 ET onward, with price dropping to the lower band multiple times. A contraction in band width was seen in the overnight hours before expanding again, indicating a potential increase in volatility. The midday selloff (17:00–19:30 ET) saw a spike in volume, with over 30 million TLM traded in a 2.5-hour window. However, subsequent buying volume has been relatively weak, suggesting that sellers are still in control.

Fibonacci retracements show the 61.8% level at 0.00337 being tested twice in the last 6 hours, with a 50% retracement level near 0.00345. This level could act as a short-term pivot point for the next few days.

Forward Outlook and Risk

Price is likely to test the 0.00330–0.00335 support zone over the next 24 hours, with a break below that level increasing the probability of a move toward 0.00320. A bullish reversal is possible if RSI closes above 40 with increased volume and if price closes above the 50-period MA. However, investors should remain cautious as volatility remains high and the bearish bias is well-entrenched.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position after a bearish engulfing pattern is confirmed, with a stop-loss placed above the 0.00345 resistance and a take-profit target set at 0.00330. Given the current RSI in oversold territory and the bearish alignment of MAs, this setup would aim to capitalize on continuation after a pullback. The strategy would also incorporate a volume filter to ensure that volume spikes confirm the downward move, increasing the probability of a successful short trade. This approach aligns with the observed price action and could be refined using historical 15-minute data from similar volatility spikes.