Alien Worlds/Tether (TLMUSDT) Market Overview

• Price declined from 0.00427 to 0.00408, a 4.0% drop over 24 hours
• High volatility observed mid-session, with a low of 0.00399 before partial recovery
• Volume spiked overnight, peaking at over 8M contracts during the 24-hour window
• RSI fell into oversold territory (below 30) suggesting potential near-term rebound
• Key support appears to have held near 0.00405–0.00406, with early signs of consolidation

Price Action Summary

Alien Worlds/Tether (TLMUSDT) opened at 0.00426 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.00427, and closed at 0.00408 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. The pair traded as low as 0.00399 during the session, with total volume amounting to 81,580,222.0 contracts and a notional turnover of approximately $330,000 (based on volume × price). The 24-hour candle shows a bearish bias with a long lower wick near the close, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.

Structure & Formations

The pair formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish trend. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed in the 15-minute chart around 02:45 ET, following a brief attempt at a rebound. A notable doji appeared at 03:00 ET near 0.00418, signaling indecision in the market. The low of 0.00399 on 09:30 ET marked a critical support zone that showed signs of holding with a subsequent partial recovery to 0.00408.

Moving Averages & Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained in a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward bias. The 200-period moving average on the daily chart continues to act as a key resistance at around 0.00415. The RSI has dipped below 30 for the past several hours, indicating overbought conditions, while the MACD crossed below the zero line, confirming bearish momentum.

Volatility & Volume

Volatility surged overnight, particularly between 03:00 ET and 04:30 ET, with the price dropping sharply to 0.00408. The largest volume spike occurred at 09:30 ET, with over 6,000,000 contracts traded. Notional turnover peaked at that time as well. Divergence between price and volume was observed late in the session, with declining volume despite a slight rebound in price, suggesting possible exhaustion in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing low at 0.00399 and swing high at 0.00427, the key retracement levels are at 0.00415 (38.2%) and 0.00409 (61.8%). The price appears to have found a temporary floor near the 61.8% level during the 09:30 ET session, and buyers may look to test the 0.00415 level for potential near-term resistance.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained relatively low for much of the session, with the price remaining within the Bollinger Bands. However, a sharp contraction occurred overnight, followed by a brief expansion as the price fell sharply. The price has since consolidated near the lower band but shows signs of testing the middle band (20-period MA), suggesting that volatility may rise again if the 0.00415 level is tested.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position when the 15-minute RSI falls below 30 and the 20-period moving average crosses below the 50-period moving average. A stop-loss could be placed at the nearest support level, and a take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This strategy would aim to capture short-term bearish momentum during overextended moves, while also respecting key structural levels for risk management. Given the recent RSI dip and bearish crossovers, this setup appears to align well with current market dynamics.