Alien Worlds/Tether Market Overview (TLMUSDT): Volatile 24-Hour Move with Oversold Risk

• Price declined from 0.00331 to 0.00303 over 24 hours amid increased selling pressure.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early morning ET, signaling potential further weakness.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, with price trading near the lower band.
• High volume and large turnover observed during the late-night selloff, suggesting significant participation.
• RSI-14 remains unavailable, but overbought/oversold conditions can still be inferred from price swings.

Alien Worlds/Tether (TLMUSDT) opened at 0.00331 on 2025-10-29 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.00303 on 2025-10-30 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 0.00337 and the low was 0.00301. Total volume for the period was 130,533,585 and turnover was approximately $402,699. The pair displayed sharp volatility, especially in the late-night to early-morning ET session, where a key bearish pattern emerged.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern during the 2025-10-29 18:45–19:00 ET session formed a large bearish engulfing candle, closing near the low of 0.00325 after opening at 0.00335. This pattern is a strong bearish signal, especially when it appears after a prior uptrend or consolidation. Later, from 2025-10-30 04:15–05:00 ET, the price dropped significantly to as low as 0.00320 and then continued to fall further to 0.00301. This suggests that sellers gained control. A notable doji formed on 2025-10-30 at 04:45 ET, indicating indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have been in a steep bearish alignment since the early-morning ET session. This suggests the short-term trend is clearly down. On the daily chart, while we only have one data point for the 200-period MA (as the 24-hour data is from 15-minute candles), the 50 and 200-period MAs would typically be in a bearish configuration if this trend continues, reinforcing the short-to-medium-term bearish outlook.

MACD & RSI

While RSI-14 data could not be retrieved, the MACD histogram turned negative and remained bearish in the late-night session. The MACD line crossed below the signal line, confirming the bearish momentum. Price action and MACD divergence suggest that the selling pressure may not be fully exhausted yet. Without RSI, we must rely more on MACD and candlestick behavior to infer potential overbought or oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the late-night/early-morning ET session, indicating heightened volatility. Price traded near the lower band, suggesting it is in an oversold region. A rebound from the lower band could be imminent if this volatility subsides, although a continued test of the 0.00301 level may be possible.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 2025-10-29 18:45–19:00 ET session and again during the 2025-10-30 04:15–05:00 ET session, coinciding with the largest downward moves. This confirms the bearish bias is not a false signal but rather a significant shift in sentiment. Turnover also increased during these sessions, further supporting the strength of the selling pressure. No price-volume divergence was observed, indicating the move is likely to continue or consolidate.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from 0.00331 (high) to 0.00301 (low), the 38.2% retracement level is at 0.00319, and the 61.8% retracement level is at 0.00326. Price briefly tested the 61.8% level before falling further, suggesting limited short-term buying interest. A bounce from the 38.2% level could offer a potential support zone, but given the strong bearish momentum, a test of 0.00301 remains likely.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the absence of RSI-14 data, an alternative approach would be to calculate it manually using the 15-minute close prices from the provided OHLCV dataset. A backtest could be structured around a basic RSI-based strategy: entering long positions when RSI-14 falls below 30 (oversold) and exiting when it crosses back above 30. Alternatively, a short bias could be added when RSI rises above 70 (overbought), with exits when it falls below 70. This strategy would be most relevant during periods of high volatility, such as the late-night/early-morning ET sessions observed in this data. While the lack of RSI data complicates direct analysis, the candlestick patterns and MACD suggest that this approach would align well with the observed trend dynamics.