Alien Worlds/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price dropped from 0.00321 to 0.00295 over 24 hours, closing near daily low.
• High volume activity between 19:45 and 20:45 ET suggests bearish momentum.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, hinting potential near-term bounce.

TLMUSDT opened at 0.00321 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.00295 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.00324 and a low of 0.00294. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 75,580,918, and notional turnover was $217,743. The price action reflects a bearish trend with several long-bodied bearish candles and a late morning rebound attempt.

The price structure has shown key support and resistance levels during the 24-hour period. A strong resistance was identified at 0.00324, where the price struggled to stay above in the early part of the session. A significant support level appears to be forming near 0.00294–0.00295, where the price found a floor multiple times in the afternoon. On the candlestick side, long bearish bodies, and several bearish engulfing patterns (notably between 19:45 and 20:30 ET) suggest strong selling pressure. A doji formed just before 03:00 ET, signaling potential exhaustion of the downward move.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate that the price remained below the 20 and 50-period SMAs for most of the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. The daily chart (not shown) would typically include 50, 100, and 200-period averages, but based on the short-term trend, the price is likely below all of them. This alignment of moving averages with price below them increases the likelihood of further consolidation or a test of key support.

The MACD line moved lower throughout the session, indicating a bearish divergence in momentum. The histogram consistently showed negative bars, supporting the idea of sustained selling pressure. RSI reached an oversold level near 28–30 by late morning, suggesting that a short-term bounce could be due. However, the overall RSI remains bearish, and a sustained close above 0.00305 is needed for a more bullish shift. Volatility, as seen on Bollinger Bands, has expanded significantly, with price often testing the lower band—especially during the 19:45–21:00 ET period.

The volume profile shows a notable spike between 19:45 and 20:45 ET, coinciding with a sharp decline in price and increased bearish momentum. During this period, volume exceeded 15 million, and the notional turnover rose sharply. This suggests that the selling was driven by larger participants or algorithmic triggers. While the volume dipped in the early morning hours, the price found support near 0.00294–0.00295, indicating that buyers are defending this level with moderate volume. Overall, price and volume are aligned in a bearish direction.

Fibonacci retracement levels for the most recent 15-minute swing show the 61.8% level at approximately 0.00302, which the price briefly tested but failed to hold. On the daily scale, the 61.8% retracement level (based on a larger swing) would likely be around 0.00298, which is close to the current price range. The 50% level (~0.00309) appears to be a key psychological and technical resistance area in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis
The provided backtest of RSI < 30 events shows a statistically reliable short-term bounce with a median cumulative excess return of +2% within 13–17 trading days. Given the current RSI nearing the 30 threshold, this could indicate a potential reversal opportunity for TLMUSDT in the next 2–3 weeks. However, the current 15-minute price action remains bearish, and confirmation via a sustained close above key resistance is needed to align with the historical pattern.