Alien Worlds/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• TLMUSDT declined from 0.00322 to 0.00318 over 24 hours, with 32.7M volume.
• Price action shows consolidation, with key support at 0.00315 and resistance at 0.00320.
• RSI and MACD indicate weakening momentum and neutral to bearish sentiment.

Alien Worlds/Tether (TLMUSDT) opened at 0.00318 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.00322, and closed at 0.00318 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-10. The pair traded within a narrow range of 0.00314 to 0.00322. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 32.7 million contracts, with notional turnover amounting to approximately $0.10 million (based on TLMUSDT average price).

Structure & Formations

TLMUSDT formed a consolidation pattern over the 24-hour period, with price hovering between 0.00314 and 0.00322. A notable Bullish Engulfing pattern emerged around 2025-11-09 at 19:00 ET (0.00316 → 0.00320), followed by a failed breakout, suggesting short-term bearish pressure. Key support levels appear at 0.00315 and 0.00312, while resistance levels are at 0.00318 and 0.00320. A doji at 2025-11-10 05:15 ET (0.00320) indicates indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) were closely aligned, indicating a low trend environment. The 20 SMA crossed below the 50 SMA briefly, hinting at short-term bearish pressure. Daily chart analysis using 50/100/200 SMA lines shows price hovering just below the 50-day line, suggesting a bearish bias in the medium-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below the signal line for most of the 24-hour period, indicating bearish momentum. The histogram showed a gradual contraction in bullish divergence, consistent with price consolidation. The RSI hovered between 35–45, signaling neutral to slightly bearish sentiment with no clear overbought or oversold conditions observed.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained within the Bollinger Band channels for the majority of the period, with a slight expansion observed between 19:00 and 21:00 ET on 2025-11-09. The narrowing of the bands after this period signaled reduced volatility. Price consistently traded near the mid-band, reflecting a lack of directional bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked around key price levels, particularly at 0.00320 and 0.00315, suggesting increased participation during consolidation. Notional turnover remained stable, with no significant divergence between price and volume. A mid-day volume spike at 0.00319 (2025-11-09 21:00–23:00 ET) indicated short-term resistance testing.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 0.00314 to 0.00322 swing, the 38.2% retraction level (0.00318) acted as a temporary support, and the 61.8% retraction level (0.00316) as a minor resistance. On the daily chart, retracement levels from recent major moves suggest 0.00312 as a potential support target if the current bearish trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A recent backtest of a 3-day fixed-hold strategy using the Bullish Engulfing pattern on TLMUSDT from 2022–2025 yielded a total return of -30.4%, with an average trade return of -0.65%. The negative Sharpe ratio of -0.13 and a maximum drawdown of 32.7% indicate poor risk-adjusted performance. The strategy appears to lack viability in this asset over short timeframes, likely due to its high volatility and lack of clear trend continuation. Improvements may involve extending the holding period or incorporating volume and trend filters to better align with market dynamics.